Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 28 June 2026

NSW sits at 8,603 MW and $79.60/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand climbing steadily from a trough of around 6,865 MW in the early evening. The price-demand relationship through the overnight period has been tight: demand crossed 8,500 MW around 05:55 AEST as prices pushed through $100/MWh, peaking at $120.68/MWh when demand hit 9,896 MW at 07:00 AEST this morning. That correlation — roughly $1–2/MWh of price sensitivity per 100 MW of demand above 9,500 MW — reflects the steepening marginal cost stack as baseload black coal (currently 5,197 MW) runs near capacity and dispatchable plant including 660 MW of hydro and 231 MW of battery are drawn in to cover the morning ramp. With Sydney sitting at 9.3°C, 100% cloud cover, and a heating demand index of 8.7, this is a cold-load-driven morning profile with no solar contribution whatsoever.

The forward forecast is the key number for today's trading sessions. Prices are expected to lift sharply again from 06:00 AEST (16:00 UTC) — forecast at $94.96/MWh — escalating to a peak of $138/MWh at the 08:30 AEST half-hour as the Monday morning commercial and industrial load adds to persistent residential heating demand. That $138/MWh forecast sits notably above this morning's actual peak of $120.68/MWh, implying AEMO's dispatch model anticipates a tighter supply margin on the Monday workday ramp than was observed on Sunday. Today's maximum temperature is forecast at 17.4°C, limiting any midday demand relief; wind potential remains very low at 0.6 average for the day, so the 1,072 MW of wind currently online cannot be relied upon to provide consistent cover through the peak window.

Post-peak, the forecast shows a rapid price unwinding — $92.85/MWh at 09:00 AEST, falling to $58.66/MWh by 10:00 AEST — mirroring the demand decay seen this morning when demand dropped from 10,556 MW at 08:10 AEST back toward 9,800 MW by 09:30 AEST. The overnight trough is forecast to be pronounced: prices are expected to fall to $43/MWh between 10:00–13:30 AEST (00:00–03:30 UTC), which is consistent with overnight demand historically settling in the 7,500–8,000 MW band. Load-shifting operators with flexibility should note the four-hour window from 10:00–14:00 AEST as the optimal demand-response window, with savings of up to $95/MWh against this morning's peak. The grid stress score of 75.8 confirms the system is in an elevated but not critical state; the active SA LOR1 notices for 3–5 July carry no direct NSW demand implications today.