Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 25 June 2026

NSW spot is at $144.84/MWh with demand sitting at 8,978 MW as of 06:25 AEST — well below the session peak of 11,317 MW reached around 17:55 AEST and tracking the characteristic mid-morning trough typical of a winter Friday. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: when demand climbed through the 10,500–11,300 MW band during the morning peak (07:00–09:00 AEST), prices repeatedly touched the $231.98/MWh cap level, while the midday and afternoon trough — demand falling to 7,390 MW around 17:35 AEST — compressed prices into the $85–$115/MWh range. Demand is now rebuilding through the evening ramp, up roughly 1,600 MW from the 17:35 AEST trough, and prices are responding accordingly, rising from sub-$95/MWh at 17:35 AEST to the current $144.84/MWh.

The forecast trajectory is the key variable for the remainder of today. AEMO's dispatch forecasts point to prices stepping up to $175/MWh by 21:30 AEST and spiking to $238.07/MWh at 22:00 AEST — consistent with demand continuing to rebuild through the winter evening heating load. Current conditions support that view: Sydney sits at 10.6°C with 95% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.4, meaning residential heating load will sustain pressure through tonight. Beyond 23:30 AEST, forecasts ease sharply — $97.67/MWh at 23:30 AEST, dropping to $84.79/MWh by 00:30 AEST Friday — as overnight demand falls away. The morning peak window (07:30–10:30 AEST Friday) carries the highest forecast prices of the outlook period, with $237–$244/MWh projected between 08:30 and 10:00 AEST, and a notable $289.73/MWh spike flagged for 13:00 AEST.

The generation stack currently fielding 8,978 MW comprises black coal at 5,544 MW, hydro at 1,271 MW, wind at 898 MW, gas OCGT at 649 MW, gas CCGT at 190 MW, solar at 82 MW, and battery at 21 MW. With solar output negligible on a 95% cloud cover day and today's forecast cloud averaging 57% (max 14.9°C), solar will contribute minimally across the full day, leaving gas and hydro to absorb demand swings around the coal baseload. The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) affecting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector remains active, which continues to limit transfer flexibility on that path and can tighten NSW's margin during peak periods when every available MW of import capacity is relevant.

For demand-side operators, the optimal load window sits between 00:30 and 01:30 AEST at a forecast average of $86.84/MWh — a $202.89/MWh saving against tonight's anticipated peak. The secondary window from 23:30–00:30 AEST at $94.67/MWh offers a similar opportunity. Flexible loads