Commodity Demand — NSW1: Wednesday 24 June 2026
NSW spot sits at $147.99/MWh with demand at 9,227 MW at 06:25 AEST, rising steadily from a overnight trough of around 6,950 MW reached near 01:00 AEST. The demand-price relationship through today's data is pronounced: the morning ramp from 06:00 AEST drove prices from $142/MWh to a sustained band of $280–$300/MWh as demand crossed 9,500 MW and held above 10,000 MW through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, with multiple intervals printing at the $299.99/MWh soft cap. That sensitivity — roughly $150/MWh of price movement across a 1,000 MW demand step during the ramp — reflects tight supply margins at peak. Demand has since eased from its 10,750 MW intraday peak back toward current levels, and prices have tracked the retreat, falling through the $200s and $100s in sequence.
The generation mix supporting 9,227 MW currently comprises black coal at 6,008 MW, hydro at 1,304 MW, wind at 808 MW, gas OCGT at 392 MW, gas CCGT at 353 MW, batteries at 126 MW, and solar at 76 MW. With 95% cloud cover, 11.6°C, and a heating demand index of 6.4, solar contribution remains minimal and space heating load is sustaining overnight and morning baseline demand well above typical winter shoulders. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6302 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 25.5%.
The forecast trajectory points to a second significant price event this evening. Forecast prices lift from current levels to $230–$235/MWh across the 07:00–09:00 UTC window (17:00–19:00 AEST), before dropping sharply to the $97–$98/MWh range from 08:30 UTC (18:30 AEST) through overnight. Tomorrow's morning ramp is then priced at $164/MWh by 07:00 AEST, rising to $228/MWh at 08:30 AEST, consistent with today's observed morning peak pattern. One outlier in the forecast is a $288/MWh spike at 22:30 AEST (12:30 UTC) tomorrow — an isolated interval that warrants watching for constraint or unit commitment factors as the day unfolds.
The active Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) remains in force, limiting flows on the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector. This constrains import pathways that could otherwise provide marginal relief during demand peaks, adding upward price pressure during the evening ramp. Traders and demand-response managers should treat the 17:00–19:00 AEST window as the primary price risk period today, with sub-$100/MWh opportunities available through the 11:00–16:00 AEST (01:00–06:00 UTC) overnight trough for flexible load scheduling.