Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

NSW spot price sits at $121.46/MWh with demand at 9,517 MW as of 06:25 AEST, rising steadily from a session trough near 6,993 MW around 13:45 AEST. The demand trajectory through the overnight period tracks the classic winter evening ramp — demand climbed from roughly 7,460 MW at 03:30 AEST to the current level and continues upward. Price sensitivity to this ramp is already visible: the five intervals leading into the current reading show prices stepping up from $117.49 to $147.89/MWh before the latest print pulled back to $121.46/MWh, indicating some supply headroom is still available but the stack is tightening. The morning peak earlier today (17:00–19:00 AEST) reached 11,093 MW with prices sustaining $175–$227/MWh across multiple intervals, confirming the market's marginal cost structure steepens sharply above 11,000 MW.

The forecast paints a significant price escalation for this morning's business-hour window. Prices are forecast to reach $232/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $311.91/MWh at 18:30 AEST, and spike to $587.51/MWh at 19:00 AEST as demand climbs back toward the 10,500–11,000 MW range that drove elevated pricing earlier in the session. The 19:00–20:30 AEST window carries forecasts between $280–$412/MWh, reflecting the deep winter morning peak where heating load, commercial demand, and constrained solar output converge. By contrast, the overnight trough from roughly 13:00–16:00 AEST is forecast in the $68–$79/MWh range as demand falls back below 7,500 MW — a $500+/MWh spread across the trading day.

Two market notices are directly relevant to today's supply-demand balance. The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) remains active, restricting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector and limiting transfer capacity into NSW from South Australia. Separately, the negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector that operated earlier this session (ceased 23:30 AEST) has been lifted, restoring normal Victorian import capacity — a factor that likely contributed to the price moderation seen in the $111–$125/MWh range from 00:00–01:30 AEST. With the Buronga constraint still in place and interconnector flexibility partially curtailed, NSW remains more exposed to local stack pricing during the forecast morning peak.

Flexible load operators face a clear signal: the overnight window from 13:00–17:00 AEST (12:00–04:00 UTC) offers prices in the $68–$79/MWh range with demand below 7,500 MW, representing the lowest-cost consumption window of the day. Any load that can shift away from the 18:00–21:30 AEST peak avoids forecast prices up to $587/MWh. The current 7.6°C temperature with a 10.4 heating degree reading and clear skies confirm winter space heating remains the dominant demand driver — with today's maximum of 17.2°C forecast, afternoon demand softening is likely, but the evening ramp back above