Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 27 June 2026
NSW spot price sits at $80.53/MWh against a current demand of 7,361 MW at 6:25 AEST — a Sunday morning trough that is tracking well below the overnight peak of 10,531 MW recorded around 18:00–18:30 AEST and the earlier evening high of $175/MWh seen near 8:10 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's history is clear: as demand climbed from roughly 7,000 MW in the pre-dawn period through the winter morning ramp to above 10,500 MW, prices pushed from the mid-$90s into the $110–$137/MWh band. The subsequent demand decay through the afternoon and into the early evening has unwound that premium, with prices now consolidating in the high-$70s to low-$80s corridor. At 7,361 MW, demand is light for a winter Sunday and the market is reflecting that accordingly.
The forecast profile signals a clear and significant re-escalation through today. Prices are expected to firm through the 7:00–10:00 AEST window as the morning demand ramp reasserts, with the forecast showing $110.80/MWh at 17:00–19:00 AEST and a local peak of $113.14/MWh around 18:00 AEST. That aligns directly with the pattern already visible in today's data: each time demand crossed 10,000 MW prices settled in the $110–$130/MWh range. Between now and that ramp, the overnight trough is forecast to dip as low as $62.24/MWh around 15:30 AEST and $65.55/MWh around 14:00 AEST, with the cheapest load windows concentrated in the 12:30–13:30 AEST bracket at $73/MWh. Temperature today sits at 12.3°C with a max of 15.9°C and 96% cloud cover — sustained heating load with negligible solar offset — which reinforces the expectation that the morning ramp will be demand-driven and relatively steep.
The Armidale–Dumaresq 330kV line returned to service at 10:40 AEST today after an 11-day outage, removing the N-ARDM_8C, N-DM_SVC, N-TW_SVC, and N-X_8C+DM+TW_SVC constraint sets. This restores inter-regional transfer capacity on the NSW–Queensland corridor, providing additional headroom as morning demand builds and reducing the risk of localised congestion pricing on that boundary. The previously declared SA Forecast LOR2 for 30 June has been cancelled as of 05:45 AEST this morning, removing a potential transmission pressure point that could have influenced VIC–NSW flows later in the week.