Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 10 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $91.41/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 8,232 MW, down from the overnight evening peak near 11,000 MW that pushed prices to $174.59/MWh at 17:45 AEST yesterday evening's data run. Demand is currently climbing out of the overnight trough (7,430 MW at 03:55 AEST) as the morning ramp begins, tracking the classic winter shape: a low-demand, low-price overnight base followed by a sharp morning climb into the 08:00-09:00 AEST peak.
The price-demand relationship today is tight and non-linear above roughly 9,500 MW. Through the current dataset, prices hold in the $80-100/MWh band while demand sits below 9,000 MW, but every push through 10,000 MW correlates with prices jumping into the $120-146/MWh range, and the single spike to $174.59/MWh coincided with demand crossing 11,000 MW. This confirms NSW's supply stack has limited headroom above 10-10.5 GW before higher-cost peaking plant sets the marginal price. With black coal currently supplying 5,762 MW of the 6,592 MW generation mix reported (87%), and wind and solar contributing a combined 231 MW under 100% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential, the region has little low-cost renewable buffer to absorb this morning's demand ramp.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming morning peak, with forecast RRP climbing from $77.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST to $101.10/MWh by 09:00 AEST and peaking near $111.01/MWh at 10:30 AEST before easing through midday. This aligns with the demand pattern from the prior 24 hours, where the AM shoulder (07:00-09:00 AEST) consistently produced prices above $120/MWh. Forecast prices then fall sharply into the afternoon and overnight, dropping to $25.30/MWh between 02:00-04:00 AEST tomorrow as demand recedes — the load-shifting windows flagged in the data (particularly 02:00-05:00 AEST) offer savings of $65-86/MWh versus today's peak pricing. No load-shedding directions or demand-side notices are active for NSW today; the only related market notice is a non-credible contingency event in QLD, with no NSW-specific reserve or intervention notices currently in force.