Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 12 July 2026

NSW demand sits at 8,891 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $69.99/MWh — climbing fast through the evening peak after demand troughed near 6,150 MW around 02:45-03:00 AEST overnight, when prices fell negative (down to -$8.50/MWh) as low overnight load met continuing wind and hydro output. The morning ramp from 6,300 MW at 04:00 to over 10,600 MW by 08:00 AEST drove price recovery from single digits into the $70-90/MWh band, with a brief spike to $90.49/MWh at 06:30 AEST as demand crossed 8,800 MW — illustrating NSW's steep price-demand elasticity through the 8,000-9,000 MW threshold where mid-merit and peaking plant get dispatched.

Demand has since eased from the 10,600 MW mid-morning peak, tracking down through the 7,100-7,900 MW band across the afternoon with prices settling in the $42-80/MWh range on lighter load. The current evening ramp is now underway, with demand climbing again from 7,443 MW at 19:00 AEST to 8,891 MW at 20:25 AEST, pushing spot back up through the $70/MWh mark. AEMO's forecast has prices continuing to build overnight, targeting $78.60/MWh by 21:00 AEST and peaking near $81/MWh across 21:30-22:00 AEST before easing.

Looking at today's (13 July) trajectory, the forecast curve shows a pronounced morning peak: prices are expected to climb sharply from a $5/MWh trough near 16:00 AEST (04:00 target) to $80-90/MWh by 07:00-08:00 AEST, then spike to $100.92/MWh around 10:30 AEST target time — the sharpest price signal of the outlook window, coinciding with peak morning demand ramp under cool 9.2°C conditions and heating demand at 8.8. Solar potential is essentially zero overnight, and today's forecast average solar potential of 19.5% with only 5.6% wind potential suggests limited renewable offset during the morning peak, reinforcing upward price pressure. Overnight troughs remain attractive for flexible load: AEMO's identified low-price windows (00:00-01:00 and 04:00-05:00 AEST) offer savings of $82-102/MWh versus peak, with the 04: