Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $122.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,534 MW — up from the overnight trough of 792 MW recorded around 13:00 AEST yesterday but well below the evening peak. The data shows a tight demand-price relationship today: the overnight low of 792 MW near 13:30 AEST (03:00 local trading) corresponded with prices in the $92-108/MWh range, while this morning's ramp saw demand climb from 1,081 MW to over 2,058 MW between 06:00 and 08:45 AEST, driving prices up sharply to a peak of $181.05/MWh at 06:50 AEST. This morning peak coincided with low wind potential (0.7%) and zero solar potential under 99% cloud cover, removing renewable supply cushion just as demand ramped.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a stronger price response later today than the morning peak. Forecast RRP climbs from $111-148/MWh through the early evening (targeting 21:00-22:30 AEST) before easing overnight, but the standout figure is a forecast spike to $298.20/MWh at 09:30 AEST tomorrow (07-08 July overnight into pre-dawn), with sustained elevated pricing of $158-178/MWh through the 07:00-12:00 AEST window tomorrow. This reflects the low wind potential of 0.4% forecast for 8 July, meaning SA will lean more heavily on gas and battery dispatch to meet the morning and midday demand ramp, with price sensitivity to any additional load or generation shortfall amplified in a low-wind environment.
Current generation mix shows wind contributing 879.94 MW against gas (OCGT 243.55 MW, CCGT 293.24 MW) and battery output of 49.55 MW, with renewable penetration at 63.39% and carbon intensity at 0.206 tCO2/MWh. AEMO's reserve notices flag a forecast LOR1 condition for SA on 14 July (00:00-02:00 AEST, reserve requirement 424 MW against 388 MW available), signalling the market is monitoring capacity margins into next week — a factor traders should track alongside today's price action given the pattern of voltage-related directions issued to Torrens Island and Barker Inlet gas units in early July.
Demand-side load-shifting opportunities are clearest overnight: AEMO's load