Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 5 July 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $92.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,547 MW, climbing from an overnight low near 1,150 MW (around 11:30-11:40pm AEST) when prices dropped as low as $12.88/MWh. The overnight trough through to 02:00 AEST saw prices whipsaw between $22-$139/MWh on relatively thin demand of 1,150-1,290 MW, reflecting how thin overnight wind output (renewable penetration fell to 28-38% between 04:00-08:00 AEST) leaves the region exposed to gas-set pricing even at modest load levels.

The critical feature today is the morning demand ramp: total demand climbed from 1,514 MW at 05:15 AEST to a peak of 2,203 MW by 08:35 AEST, tracking the standard cold-morning heating load (current temperature 7.6°C, heating demand index 10.4). Price responded accordingly, holding in a $101-$139/MWh band through the 06:00-09:00 AEST window, with a brief spike to $259.96/MWh at 05:15 AEST as demand jumped sharply into low wind output. As demand eased back below 2,050 MW by 10:30 AEST, prices softened into the $75-$100/MWh range, and by early afternoon (12:00-15:00 AEST) demand fell to 1,550-1,900 MW with prices retreating to $50-$90/MWh.

AEMO's forecast curve points to a second demand-driven price lift this evening: forecast RRP climbs from $84/MWh at 17:00 AEST to $110-$126/MWh across 19:00-20:30 AEST as the evening peak sets in, before easing toward $68-$105/MWh overnight. Notably, AEMO's LOR2 reserve notices flagged tight capacity margins (758 MW requirement against 625-638 MW available) for the 07:30-11:00 AEST window on 3 July, a pattern consistent with today's morning price spikes — traders should watch for reserve tightness recurring at similar demand levels (above 2,000 MW) given wind generation currently sits at 776 MW against a backdrop of near-zero solar potential (0.1 solar potential index) until well into the morning. With gas OCGT (313 MW) and CCGT (123 MW) covering the shortfall behind wind's 776 MW, price sensitivity to