Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 1 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$6.42/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC 1 July), with demand at 1,597 MW — well below the overnight peak of 2,419 MW recorded around 18:30-18:30 UTC (04:30-05:00 AEST). Wind generation of 1,547 MW is comfortably covering current demand, pushing the region into negative pricing territory that has persisted for over 12 hours straight, with prices ranging from -$0.05 to -$14.17/MWh through theморning and early afternoon trading windows.
The demand-price relationship today has been strongly inverse to typical patterns: peak demand near 2,400 MW around 08:00-08:30 AEST coincided with some of the lowest prices of the day ($20-30/MWh range, dipping to -$14.17/MWh by 09:20), because wind output was strong enough to oversupply the market even at high load. Conversely, the highest prices ($70-80/MWh) occurred not at peak demand but during the ramp-up period between 06:30-08:00 AEST when demand was climbing through 2,000-2,100 MW but wind generation hadn't yet caught up, and again briefly overnight near 07:30-08:00 UTC (17:30-18:00 AEST prior evening) as evening demand ramped past 1,900 MW. This confirms SA's price signal is currently driven more by generation adequacy than by absolute demand levels.
Looking at the forecast trajectory, AEMO's demand-weighted forecasts show negative-to-flat pricing persisting through the remainder of today's morning and into early afternoon, with forecast RRPs ranging from -$8.83 to $9.11/MWh through to 18:00 UTC (04:00 AEST tomorrow), reflecting continued strong wind potential (54.6% currently, easing to 35.5% average tomorrow per the weather outlook). Demand is expected to taper from today's early-morning peak as temperatures stay mild (12.7°C, minimal heating/cooling load), keeping grid stress moderate. Traders should note AEMO's active LOR1 reserve notices for 3 July (0730-1100 hrs, requirement 370 MW vs 318 MW available) and 4-5 July, signalling tighter reserve margins later in the week that could reverse today's negative pricing regime once wind eases per the multi-day outlook (wind