Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 29 June 2026

South Australia sits at 1,535 MW at $139.01/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, demand rising from a recent trough near 1,395 MW in the 03:55–04:00 AEST window. The price-demand relationship over the past several hours is direct and pronounced: as demand climbed from roughly 1,400 MW through to the day's peak of 2,170 MW (reached around 18:10–18:20 AEST), prices surged from the low $100s/MWh to sustained intervals of $350–$495/MWh, with a spike to $840/MWh at 17:15 AEST. That peak period — roughly 17:00 to 19:00 AEST — illustrates SA's tight supply stack at higher demand levels, where each incremental 50–100 MW of load is sufficient to move the market through multiple price bands. The current demand of 1,535 MW sits well below that stress zone, and the $139.01/MWh price reflects a moderately tight but manageable supply position, supported by 682 MW of wind and 394 MW of gas OCGT.

The forecast trajectory is the key driver for today's outlook. Forecasts show prices escalating through the evening: $118.65/MWh at 07:00 AEST, stepping to $150/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then a sharp move to $227/MWh by 09:00 AEST, sustaining in the $197–$223/MWh range through to 11:30 AEST. This aligns with the pattern observed overnight, where demand climbing above 1,700–1,800 MW pushes prices materially higher as peaking gas capacity is required to meet load. The morning commercial and industrial demand ramp — consistent with a winter weekday profile at 11.8°C with 6.2 heating degree-units — is the proximate driver. The afternoon sees a significant reversal: forecasts drop sharply to $67/MWh by 19:00 AEST, then to single digits ($9.10/MWh) by 03:00–03:30 AEST tomorrow, bottoming near $0.43/MWh by 04:00 AEST as solar generation (zero today but forecast cloud cover of 93% eases slightly) and the normal overnight demand trough combine to compress prices.

Two market notice items carry demand-side relevance for today. The Balranald–Buronga X3 220kV line outage, rescheduled for completion at 01:00 AEST Tuesday, constrains the V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) interconnector's transfer capability into SA under constraint set N-BABU — this limits the degree to which SA can import from Victoria to moderate local prices during the morning peak. The earlier LOR2 forecast for SA today (0800–0830 and 0930–1030 AEST, notice 144342) has not been formally cancelled, and while a prior LOR1 for 5 July was cancelled, the capacity reserve margins flagged for 3–5 July (shortfalls of 30–52 MW against requirements) indicate the dispatch stack remains tight across the week. Traders should treat the 07:00–11:30 AEST window as the primary price risk period; the $227/MWh forecast