Commodity Demand — SA1: Saturday 27 June 2026

$72.37/MWh with demand at 1,411 MW — South Australia is sitting in a low-demand, well-supplied overnight window as of 06:30 AEST. That demand level is roughly 700 MW below today's intraday peak of ~2,069 MW reached around 18:20–18:30 AEST, when prices held in the $96–$104/MWh band despite the volume. The overnight price moderation is consistent with wind carrying 1,539 MW against a load this size, leaving the gas CCGT at just 82 MW and the OCGT at effectively zero output. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is textbook: demand above ~1,800 MW correlates with prices in the $129–$166/MWh range during last evening's peak window (07:55–09:25 AEST Saturday), while demand below 1,200 MW pushed prices to the high $80s–low $90s in the pre-dawn trough.

The forecast trajectory for today shapes up as a clear three-phase price day. Prices are expected to lift through the morning ramp — $70/MWh at 07:00 AEST, rising to $87–$103/MWh through the 08:00–10:00 AEST demand build — before moderating into the $58–$72/MWh range during the midday period as demand pulls back from its morning peak. The afternoon window (01:30–04:30 AEST, i.e. 15:30–18:30 local) is forecast to fall sharply to $28–$41/MWh, reflecting reduced demand on a Sunday combined with continued wind output; the weather outlook shows average wind potential of 6.3 for today with cloud cover at 69%, suppressing solar but sustaining wind generation. A single notable spike to $136.68/MWh is forecast at 09:00 AEST (23:00 UTC), which stands out from the surrounding $78–$88/MWh range and warrants monitoring — it likely reflects a tight dispatch interval as morning ramp demand approaches its ceiling with limited fast-response headroom.

Two reserve notices are relevant to demand-side risk assessment. AEMO cancelled a Forecast LOR2 for SA on 30 June at 05:45 AEST this morning, removing the immediate reserve adequacy concern that had been declared yesterday. However, a Forecast LOR1 for SA on 3 July remains active, covering 08:00–10:00 AEST and 16:30 AEST through to 04:00 AEST on 4 July — a prolonged window where reserve margins are forecast to be 43–52 MW below requirements. That forward constraint does not affect today's dispatch but is material for participants with flexible load or storage positions across the coming week. The cancelled LOR2 had pointed to reserve shortfalls of 8–13 MW during the 08:00–10:30 AEST window on Tuesday; its removal signals the market has already begun to respond.

For today's trading, the actionable price structure is straightforward: the afternoon window from 15:30–18:30 AEST is forecast at $27–$29/MWh, roughly $109/MWh below the morning peak. Flexible loads should target that window. The morning ramp from 06:00–08:00 AEST (20:00–22:00