Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 26 June 2026

South Australia sits at 1,540 MW and $109.87/MWh at 06:30 AEST, the market now well past the overnight trough. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is clearly defined: the 06:00–07:30 AEST morning ramp drove demand from around 890 MW (the overnight floor near 14:05 UTC) up through 2,130 MW by mid-morning, with prices lifting from the $100–$130/MWh range into sustained $160–$240/MWh territory as the grid absorbed that load. The midday period saw demand ease back toward 1,750–1,850 MW and prices retreated to $110–$150/MWh, illustrating that SA's spot price is highly sensitive to demand crossing roughly the 2,000 MW threshold — above that level, marginal pricing consistently settles in the $180–$240/MWh band.

The afternoon and early evening have seen demand fall further, now sitting at 1,541 MW as heating load softens in the post-sunset period. Wind is generating 948 MW and gas (OCGT + CCGT combined) 576 MW, with solar contributing zero at this hour. The current generation mix supports today's softer pricing: wind at 62% of local demand is covering the bulk of consumption and constraining how far prices can run given the present demand level. Carbon intensity sits at 0.2146 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 62.21% of supply.

The forecast trajectory shapes a clear price outlook for the rest of today. Prices are forecast to lift through the next two hours — $138/MWh at 07:00 AEST, $151/MWh at 07:30, $155–$162/MWh through 08:00–08:30 AEST — as demand climbs back into the winter morning ramp. The forecast then shows a 09:30 AEST spike to $195/MWh before easing through $172/MWh and $145/MWh at 10:00–10:30 AEST. Prices fall progressively from midday, reaching $87–$92/MWh across the 15:00–15:30 AEST window, then dropping further into the $72–$81/MWh range from 17:00–18:00 AEST as demand softens into the late afternoon. Saturday demand patterns typically run 5–8% below weekday equivalents, which may keep today's demand peak below the 2,150 MW reached midday on Friday and limit the duration of pricing above $190/MWh.

The key demand-side watch for today is the 07:00–10:00 AEST window where the morning ramp, combined with a 7.4°C overnight low and 14.9°C forecast maximum, will drive heating load into the market. Wind potential today is rated at just 1.2 out of 100 on today's forecast, markedly lower than the 948 MW currently generating — any deterioration in wind output as the day progresses would tighten the supply-demand balance and amplify the $195/MWh spike already flagged in the 09:30 AEST forecast interval. Demand managers with flexible load should note the $72–$80/MWh window from 16:30–18:00 AEST (02:30–04:00 UTC) as