Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 28 June 2026
South Australia sits at $67.41/MWh with demand at 1,523 MW as of 06:30 AEST, prices climbing sharply from near-zero territory recorded between 03:45–04:00 AEST (prices touching $0–$9/MWh) when overnight demand troughed around 750 MW. The demand-price relationship is tracking closely today: the overnight trough near 750 MW produced spot prices in the $41–$68/MWh range, while the morning ramp is now driving prices upward in step with demand recovery. Forecasts point to prices of $81–$83/MWh by 07:00–08:00 AEST as demand climbs toward what is likely to be today's peak window, with a notable $128/MWh forecast spike at 08:30 AEST — a level consistent with the tight, gas-backed marginal dispatch that SA experiences when winter morning demand crests and wind output is absorbed but insufficient to suppress thermal pricing signals.
Today's generation mix underscores how wind volume shapes the price floor. Wind is currently generating 1,471 MW against total demand of 1,524 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 60 MW and battery providing 23 MW of net output. That near-total wind coverage is holding morning prices below the $80–$107/MWh band seen earlier in the month's morning peaks, but as demand builds through 07:00–10:00 AEST, the forecast price sequence — $86.50 at 07:00, $101 by 07:30, $128 at 08:30 — signals that gas CCGT and OCGT capacity will be required to firm supply and will set the marginal price. The demand trajectory is the key variable: today's maximum temperature of 15.3°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 5.8 means sustained morning load as residential and commercial heating runs through the peak.
Forecasts ease significantly from midday onward, dropping to $38–$43/MWh from 13:30 AEST, consistent with wind maintaining output and demand easing off the morning peak. The lowest-cost load window sits 11:30–02:30 AEST tonight, with forecast prices between $25–$35/MWh — saving up to $101/MWh versus the morning peak. Traders and demand-response managers should note that AEMO has active Forecast LOR1 conditions for SA on 3–5 July, with reserve margins falling 30–52 MW short of requirements across multiple periods — a structural tightness that is likely to steepen the price response to any unexpected demand lift or wind shortfall later this week.