Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 25 June 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $139.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,592 MW — a level that reflects the characteristic winter morning trough before the working-day ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: the overnight nadir saw demand fall to around 908 MW at 13:25 AEST (03:25 UTC) with prices holding near $91–$101/MWh, while the morning peak demand of approximately 2,190 MW at 18:35 AEST (08:35 UTC) coincided with spot prices running $165–$229/MWh. That sensitivity — roughly $0.10–$0.15/MWh per MW of additional demand in the upper range — reflects the tightening of dispatchable headroom as gas OCGT (405 MW) and CCGT (434 MW) are both running, with wind contributing 957 MW and battery at just 13 MW. Solar is contributing 0 MW at this hour, consistent with pre-dawn conditions at 7.9°C and cloud cover at 48%.

The demand trajectory for today points firmly upward from the current 1,592 MW. The forecast price curve signals the market is expecting a sustained and aggressive ramp: $121/MWh at 07:00 AEST rising to $163–$176/MWh through 08:00–09:30 AEST, then accelerating into a pronounced morning peak band of $194–$237/MWh between 09:30 and 11:00 AEST (19:30–21:00 UTC). The forecast peak of $236.86/MWh at 21:00 UTC (07:00 AEST Friday 26 June) and $262/MWh at 23:00 UTC (09:00 AEST) represents the sharpest price exposure of the day. Today's maximum temperature forecast of just 13.6°C drives sustained heating demand throughout the morning, and with wind potential rated at 0.3 on a near-calm morning (4 km/h), wind output is unlikely to replicate last night's 957 MW contribution during the critical demand ramp.

Demand relief arrives in the early afternoon: the forecast steps back to $116–$122/MWh from 14:00–17:00 AEST as heating demand eases and the grid relaxes from its morning peak. This mirrors the observed pattern from overnight where demand peaked near 2,190 MW through the 18:00–19:00 UTC window (04:00–05:00 AEST) before unwinding sharply to below 1,000 MW by early morning. The optimal load windows identified for today sit in the 13:00–16:00 AEST band (03:00–06:00 UTC), where forecast prices range $119–$127/MWh — savings of $135–$142/MWh against the morning peak. Flexible loads and battery operators should treat the 09:00–11:00 AEST window as the primary exposure period; the $262/MWh forecast at 09:00 AEST is the single highest price point in the outlook and warrants active position management.

One market notice is directly relevant to SA price formation today: AEMO has raised the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW effective 25 June, reflecting increased