Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

South Australia is sitting at $500.44/MWh with demand at 1,672 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and prices have been climbing steadily through the morning as demand builds off its overnight trough. The demand profile today traces a clear winter pattern: demand bottomed near 955 MW around 14:15–14:40 AEST (overnight low), then recovered through the pre-dawn period before accelerating sharply from 16:15 AEST onwards. The price sensitivity to that ramp is unambiguous — prices held below $200/MWh through the 14:00–15:45 AEST window when demand sat under 1,025 MW, then broke above $286/MWh at 16:15 AEST as demand crossed 1,300 MW, and have remained above $491/MWh through the 07:30–08:30 AEST period as demand pushes toward the 1,670–1,700 MW range. With ambient temperature at 4.3°C and a heating demand index of 13.7, residential and commercial heat load is the primary demand driver with no solar contribution at this hour.

The current generation mix reflects the tightness in the market: gas OCGT is dispatching 554.69 MW, gas CCGT 485.83 MW, battery 121.17 MW, and wind a relatively low 53.37 MW — totalling approximately 1,215 MW of local generation, with the balance sourced via interconnection from Victoria. Wind output is well below its potential given wind speed is only 3.6 km/h, leaving the market heavily reliant on gas-fired capacity to meet demand. The grid stress score of 67.3 and price stability score of 30.6 are consistent with a market operating close to its dispatchable capacity margin. A constraint notice on the Buronga B Bus 220kV isolator (V-S-MNSP1) remains active, which continues to limit import flexibility on Murraylink and contributes to SA's price isolation from lower Victorian prices.

The forecast price outlook for today is sharply two-sided. Prices are forecast to remain elevated at $380/MWh through to 07:00–07:30 AEST, then spike into the $874–$923/MWh range from 08:00–09:30 AEST (22:00–23:30 UTC) as evening demand peaks — the period where SA's winter load typically crests above 2,100–2,200 MW based on yesterday's equivalent demand profile. After that peak clears, forecast prices step down to $312/MWh from 10:00 AEST and then soften further to $250/MWh by 14:00–14:30 AEST as overnight demand falls. The best load windows for flexible consumers today are the 01:30–02:30 AEST period (forecast $144–$148/MWh) and the 00:00–01:00 AEST window (forecast $141–$172/MWh), where the gap versus the evening peak exceeds $770/MWh.

Traders should note AEMO has confirmed no Low Reserve Conditions in the current MT PASA run, and the TAS LOR1 forecast for 25 June was cancelled at 14:00 AEST, removing a near-term concern about cross-border reserve adequacy. However, from 25 June AEMO is raising