Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 7 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1377 MW — a level that's produced near-zero or negative pricing for the past eleven hours as wind generation (1556 MW, 97.2% renewable share) comprehensively outstrips underlying load. The price-demand relationship has been stark overnight: demand troughed near 560-650 MW between 13:30-14:30 AEST, coinciding with prices as low as -$7.01/MWh, before climbing back through the 1300-1400 MW band into this morning without dragging prices up, because wind supply has scaled in step with demand.
The demand trajectory across the past 24 hours shows the typical evening peak shape inverted against this wind-dominated supply. Thursday evening's peak of 1909 MW (22:15 AEST) pushed prices to $145-167/MWh as wind output was comparatively constrained, demonstrating SA's price sensitivity when demand climbs into the 1800-1900 MW range without matching renewable output. That sensitivity vanished through yesterday's daylight hours: demand held between 1400-1880 MW from 06:00 to 16:00 AEST while prices stayed mostly in the sub-$10/MWh to low-teens range once wind ramped, only touching $130/MWh briefly around 08:00-08:30 AEST during the morning ramp before wind caught up.
Forecast pricing for today points to continued weak or negative pricing through midday and early afternoon, with AEMO's curve showing -$1 to -$6.25/MWh from 09:30 AEST through to at least 18:00 AEST target intervals, before firming modestly to $8-29/MWh in the 18:30-19:30 window as evening demand rises against fading solar and potentially easing wind. Load window analysis flags five separate low-price hours between 03:00-08:00 AEST tomorrow (avg -$5.46 to -$6.12/MWh), reinforcing that overnight and early-morning demand troughs remain the cheapest windows for flexible load, worth roughly $34-35/MWh in savings versus peak pricing.
No SA-specific demand-side notices are active today; the market intervention and direction notices logged for SA relate to early-August voltage support at Torrens Island, now cancelled. Today's outlook is otherwise a straightforward wind-versus-demand balance: with 100% cloud cover eliminating solar contribution and wind potential rated at 4.6% average for the day, price direction will track wind output fluctuations against the 1000-1900 MW demand band expected through the day.