Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 3 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $102.66/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,559 MW and climbing on the morning ramp. This follows an overnight demand trough below 920 MW around 03:15-04:00 AEST, where prices fell into negative territory (down to -$5.98/MWh) as low demand met a 91-92% renewable share. The relationship between demand and price is stark today: the 05:30-08:55 AEST window saw demand surge from roughly 1,190 MW to a peak of 2,186 MW, and prices tracked this closely, lifting from near-zero to a session-high of $145.12/MWh at 21:55 UTC (07:55 AEST). Wind generation of just 240 MW and zero solar output (heavy 96% cloud cover, negligible wind speed at 1.9 km/h) left gas plant — 325 MW OCGT and 291 MW CCGT — covering the bulk of the ramp, pushing carbon intensity up from 0.044 tCO2/MWh overnight to 0.399 tCO2/MWh currently, with renewable penetration falling to 30.55%.
Demand has since eased back from its late-morning peak near 2,186 MW to 1,559 MW currently, and AEMO's forecast shows prices holding in the $80-130/MWh band through the evening peak, with a forecast spike to $130/MWh around 22:30 AEST as demand is expected to firm again. The forecast trajectory into tomorrow shows prices climbing sharply from 07:00 AEST ($89.78/MWh) through to a peak of $170.44/MWh at 12:00 AEST on 4 August, reflecting an anticipated demand build under similarly weak renewable conditions — tomorrow's outlook carries just 0.2% average solar potential and 0.2% wind potential, near-identical to today's constrained renewable output.
No load-shedding directions or non-conformance notices are active for SA today, though the region has a recent history of AEMO interventions (Torrens Island direction cancelled 2 August) and a non-credible contingency event at City West substation on 30 July, underscoring ongoing network sensitivity during high-demand periods. For demand-side management, the load-shifting windows identify overnight opportunities tonight into tomorrow morning — particularly 01:00-02:00 AEST at $17.45/MWh average and 03:30-04:30 AEST at $45.06/MWh — offering savings above $125/MWh versus today's afternoon peak pricing.