Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

South Australia spot price sits at $52.36/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,531 MW — a marked step-down from the overnight session where prices ranged from $130–$320/MWh against demand that peaked near 1,850–1,870 MW between 08:00–09:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is clear: SA's spot is highly sensitive to demand above roughly 1,700 MW, where the marginal stack tightens and prices routinely clear above $130/MWh. Below that threshold, particularly in the 1,460–1,550 MW range seen through the 03:00–06:00 AEST window, prices collapsed toward zero and briefly went negative, with wind supplying 1,856 MW at 06:25 AEST against total demand of just 1,546 MW — generation exceeding regional consumption with the surplus flowing to Victoria.

The daytime demand trajectory shapes a straightforward price outlook. Forecasts point to prices staying subdued through the middle of the day as demand holds in the 1,500–1,600 MW range, with the forecast corridor running $59–$95/MWh through the 07:00–10:30 AEST window before dropping sharply. From approximately 20:00 AEST onward, forecasts push prices to near zero and then negative — reaching -$7.14/MWh by 04:00 AEST tomorrow morning — consistent with the pattern today where midday solar and sustained wind keep net demand soft and prices floor-bound from roughly 21:00 AEST through the pre-dawn hours. The one intraday exception in the forecast is 10:30 AEST (forecast $94.04/MWh), which likely reflects a brief tightening as morning demand holds above 1,900 MW before midday generation ramps suppress net load.

The critical forward risk for SA is not today but Friday 3 July. AEMO has issued multiple updated Forecast LOR2 notices for SA covering 07:30–11:00 AEST on 3 July, with the minimum capacity reserve available at 625 MW against a requirement of 758 MW. That 133 MW shortfall is material and AEMO is seeking a market response. Separately, the Tailem Bend–South East 1 275kV line returned to service at 06:45 AEST this morning after a planned outage that ran from 29 June, restoring full interconnector transfer capability via that circuit. With today's weather showing 12.4°C, 66% cloud cover, and wind potential at 5.4 (forecast to strengthen significantly on 2 July), demand-side pressure today is driven purely by winter heating load rather than any cooling component, keeping the demand envelope predictable and the price outlook broadly range-bound between $50–$95/MWh through the morning peak.