Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 3 July 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,492 MW as of 6:30am AEST, with spot price at $138.04/MWh — the price has held remarkably steady in a $138-$139/MWh band for the past two hours despite demand climbing from 1,433 MW to current levels. This follows a volatile overnight session where demand swung between 1,200 MW and 2,127 MW, with prices ranging from -$14.73/MWh during the 2am trough to $227.35/MWh at the 4pm demand peak (2,127 MW at 6:40am settlement).
The demand-price relationship today shows clear sensitivity above the 1,900 MW threshold. Through yesterday's afternoon peak, demand climbing from 1,700 MW to over 2,100 MW between 5pm and 6:30pm AEST pushed prices from the $75-95/MWh range up to $138-227/MWh, with a $215.04/MWh spike at 6:05pm as demand crossed 2,050 MW. Wind generation was minimal through this period (118 MW currently) and solar output sits at zero overnight, leaving gas plant (GAS_CCGT at 527 MW and GAS_OCGT at 497 MW) setting the marginal price — a dynamic reinforced by the AEMO Forecast LOR2 notice for 7:30am-11am, flagging a reserve capacity requirement of 758-768 MW against available reserves as low as 625 MW.
AEMO's dispatch forecast points to prices holding near $138-145/MWh through the morning shoulder before a sharper move: forecast RRP jumps to $170.29/MWh by 10:30am AEST and peaks at $299.98/MWh around 9:30am target settlement, coinciding with the LOR2 reserve-constrained window. This aligns with the load-shifting windows in the dataset, which flag 5am-9am as favourable ($138-139/MWh) but the 11:30pm-12:30am window carrying the highest overnight risk given the $215-300/MWh forecast band. Afternoon relief is expected, with forecast prices easing to $80.71-104.34/MWh by 2pm-6pm AEST as demand tapers.
On the demand-side, the cancelled SA intervention event (Market Notice 144409, effective 7:30am 3 July) and completed generator directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet plants suggest voltage support requirements