Commodity Demand — SA1: Saturday 4 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $70.98/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,349 MW — well down from the overnight peak of 2,018 MW recorded around 04:20 AEST (04:20 UTC display, ~14:50 local). That peak coincided with the day's highest sustained pricing band, with the RRP holding in the $100-130/MWh range through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window as demand pushed above 1,900 MW. A sharp $297.30/MWh spike printed briefly at 04:25 UTC (06:25 AEST equivalent, note timestamps are UTC-based in the data feed) when demand climbed through 1,520 MW, illustrating SA's price sensitivity at the margin — moves of just 40-80 MW around the 1,500-1,700 MW mark are triggering $20-170/MWh swings as peaking gas (OCGT) sets price at the margin.
Demand has since eased steadily through the afternoon and evening, falling from the ~2,018 MW peak to current levels near 1,350-1,400 MW, tracking the overnight price decline from above $170/MWh (evening peak period) down to the $50-80/MWh band through late afternoon and evening trade. The relationship is clear: every 300-400 MW swing in SA demand across today's trading has moved price by $50-150/MWh, confirming a steep short-run supply curve once wind and solar output is exhausted.
Forecast data points to a further demand pullback overnight, with dispatch price forecasts falling to $9-12/MWh across 00:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow (5 July), reflecting minimal demand and strong renewable contribution — the load window analysis flags five low-price windows between 00:30 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, all averaging $9-12/MWh with zero carbon intensity, offering up to $97/MWh savings versus today's peak pricing. Forecast prices then step back up to $67-107/MWh from 06:00 AEST as morning demand returns, with a further lift to $93-104/MWh forecast around midday and again into the evening peak (18:00 AEST forecast at $104.34/MWh).
On the supply side, current generation mix shows wind contributing 753 MW and gas (OCGT + CCGT) supplying 359 MW combined, with renewable penetration at 67.7% and carbon intensity at 0.192 tCO