Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 21 August 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,300 MW at 06:25 AEST, down from an overnight evening peak of 1,908 MW around 18:55 AEST last night, with spot price at $49.46/MWh. The overnight trajectory shows textbook demand-price correlation: as demand climbed from 1,300 MW to that 1,908 MW peak, prices spiked to $375.79/MWh at 18:35 AEST, with a secondary spike to $264.10/MWh shortly after. Demand troughed near 776 MW around 14:00-14:30 AEST (overnight low), coinciding with prices as low as $17.78/MWh — a greater than 20-fold price range tracking a roughly 2.5x demand swing.
Today's forecast points to a much sharper demand-driven price escalation than overnight. AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding below $50/MWh through the early morning trough (targets of $6.54-$25/MWh between 09:00-13:00 AEST), then climbing steadily from $70/MWh at 17:00 AEST to $130/MWh by 18:00 AEST, and surging into the $215-$286/MWh range between 19:30-23:00 AEST as morning demand ramps. This mirrors yesterday's pattern where demand rose from a 776 MW trough to over 1,780 MW within four hours, pulling price up by a factor of 15-20x. Traders should note the forecast trajectory implies today's peak pricing risk sits in the late morning block (19:30-23:00 AEST), materially higher than yesterday's equivalent peak.
Current generation mix at 1,300 MW demand shows wind contributing 452 MW and gas (OCGT + CCGT combined) at 288 MW, with battery storage at 154 MW supporting the ramp. Renewable penetration sits at 67.77% with carbon intensity at 0.1862 tCO2/MWh, reflecting favourable wind output overnight. Weather outlook shows low solar potential today (8.6% average) under 76% cloud cover, meaning the grid will lean more heavily on wind, gas and battery dispatch through the demand ramp — a factor likely contributing to the sharper forecast price escalation relative to yesterday, when clearer skies aided midday solar offset.
No SA-specific demand-side notices are active today; the SA voltage control direction from 18 August has lapsed. The active notices affecting inter-regional flow are concentrated in TAS1 (reclassified contingencies on Tungatinah-Waddamana lines due to lightning) and historical NSW network work, none of which currently constrain SA import/export capacity via Heywood or Murraylink.