Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 6 July 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,558 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $110.10/MWh — up from an overnight low near 875 MW (04:00 AEST) when prices bottomed around $41-52/MWh. The region has just moved through the morning ramp: demand climbed from ~1,150 MW at 06:00 to a midday peak above 2,180 MW (08:35 AEST), which pushed prices into the $101-118/MWh band for a sustained four-hour period. This morning ramp is the steepest demand gradient of the day so far, with roughly 1,000 MW added in under three hours as heating load kicks in — ambient temperature this morning is 8.3°C with negligible wind (5.4 km/h) and zero solar output overnight.
The price-demand relationship today is non-linear: once demand crosses roughly 1,900-2,000 MW, prices consistently hold at or above $100/MWh, whereas below 1,200 MW overnight, prices fall into the $40-90/MWh range. Notably, midday brought a sharp reversal — as demand eased from the 2,180 MW peak back toward 1,700-1,800 MW between 12:00 and 16:00 AEST, prices collapsed into negative territory (-$7/MWh recorded repeatedly from 15:20 through 18:25 AEST), reflecting strong rooftop and grid-scale solar plus wind output (renewable penetration hit 86% at 14:30 AEST) outpacing midday demand. This negative pricing window lasted nearly three hours, a clear signal of oversupply relative to underlying demand at that time of day.
Demand is now rebuilding into the evening peak, sitting at 1,558 MW and climbing as solar drops away. AEMO's forecast points to a second, sharper price spike tonight: forecast RRP reaches $174.64/MWh at 23:00 AEST tonight, and continues into tomorrow morning with forecasts of $120-151/MWh between 07:00 and 10:00 AEST on 7 July as demand ramps again without material solar support (tomorrow's average solar potential is just 6.7%). Wind generation currently sits at 1,205 MW, gas (OCGT+CCGT) at 346 MW, supporting the load — but with heating demand elevated (9.7) and cooling negligible, the evening and morning peaks remain the primary price risk windows.
On the demand