Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 1 July 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1,052 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $53.12/MWh, up from an overnight trough near $10-25/MWh in the early afternoon of 1 July. The region is climbing out of the overnight minimum demand period (900-980 MW between 15:00-20:00 yesterday) and moving into the morning ramp, which historically pushes Tasmania demand toward 1,290-1,300 MW by mid-morning.
Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced and non-linear. Through the past 24 hours, demand oscillating between 1,140-1,300 MW correlated with a persistent $88.24/MWh clearing price — a level that recurs repeatedly whenever demand pushes above ~1,150 MW, suggesting a marginal unit or bid band sits at that threshold. Once demand eases below ~1,050-1,100 MW, prices fall sharply to the $25-53/MWh range, and during the lowest demand trough (900-990 MW, mid-afternoon) prices collapsed to $10.10/MWh. This step-function behaviour means today's price path will track closely with the demand curve: expect $50-90/MWh through the morning peak build (07:00-09:00 AEST) as demand likely retests 1,250-1,300 MW, easing back toward $25-53/MWh through the day as demand moderates.
AEMO's 5-minute forecast curve for the evening/overnight ahead shows prices sliding toward zero and into negative territory ($-6.63/MWh) between 13:30-16:30 UTC (23:30-02:30 AEST), consistent with an expected demand trough. This pattern mirrors today's early trading, where demand fell to a low of 897 MW at 15:25 UTC (01:25 AEST) alongside a price of $10.10/MWh — Tasmania's hydro-dominant supply stack means low demand periods rapidly compress prices given minimal thermal generation on the margin. Current generation mix is 760.6 MW hydro and 348.8 MW wind, with zero gas OCGT dispatched, delivering 100% renewable share and 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity.
No demand-side market notices specific to TAS1 are active today — the AEMO notices affecting NEM operations concentrate on SA (voltage directions, LOR2 reserve conditions for 3 July) and inter