Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 30 June 2026
The spot price in South Australia sits at $52.36/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a sharp recovery from the extended near-zero and negative pricing that characterised the bulk of today's daylight window — prices touched $0/MWh repeatedly between 11:15 AEST and 19:00 AEST, with the floor hitting -$0.05/MWh at several intervals. That low-price corridor reflected strong wind output overwhelming daytime demand, which peaked around 2,120 MW in the mid-morning before easing back to 1,532 MW now. The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 1,856 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 42 MW, gas OCGT a negligible 0.11 MW, and battery storage at 4.19 MW net. Solar output is zero, consistent with the 06:30 AEST timestamp and 66% cloud cover at 12.4°C.
Carbon intensity sits at 0.0109 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 97.79% — wind is supplying virtually all local demand at this interval. That compares to intensities of 0.27–0.32 tCO2/MWh recorded overnight between 07:30 and 09:00 AEST, when wind output was lower and gas was carrying a larger share of the load. The trend through the day has been a sustained decline in carbon intensity as wind generation built, reaching the current near-floor level from around 19:25 AEST and holding there.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining subdued but positive through the early morning, ranging $60–$94/MWh through to 09:30 AEST, before dropping sharply back toward zero and into negative territory from around 18:30 AEST onward as solar and wind generation is expected to again exceed demand. The deepest negative forecasts appear in the 23:00–04:00 AEST window (target times 13:00–18:00 UTC), with the model projecting prices as low as -$7.14/MWh between 04:00 and 05:00 AEST. Optimal flexible load windows are concentrated in the 01:30–05:00 AEST period, where forecast prices range -$7 to -$2/MWh. Wind potential for tomorrow is forecast at an average 23.2 — significantly higher than today's 5.4 — suggesting the negative price periods may be deeper and broader tomorrow.
The most material active notice for SA is AEMO's Forecast LOR2 for 03 July 2026, covering 17:30–21:00 AEST (07:30–11:00 UTC). The latest update (Notice 144366) shows minimum available capacity of 625 MW against a requirement of 758 MW — a 133 MW shortfall — and AEMO is seeking a market response. This coincides with the weather outlook for 3 July showing very low wind potential (avg 10.5) and near-zero solar, which will compress available generation headroom significantly. Separately, the Tailem Bend–South East 1 275 kV line returned to service at 06:45 AEST this morning after a planned outage, restoring full interconnector transfer capability on that circuit ahead of the LOR2 window. Traders and grid engineers should monitor the Friday 3 July morning period closely for price volatility and