Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 26 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $109.87/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a significant step down from the elevated trading seen through the morning peak, where prices repeatedly pushed into the $180–$230/MWh range between 07:00 and 12:00 AEST, and touched $261.65/MWh at 06:00 AEST. The afternoon and evening have progressively unwound that pressure, with prices tracking down through the $110–$130/MWh corridor since 16:00 AEST. Total demand sits at 1,540.58 MW, well below the overnight peak of around 2,130 MW recorded through the 08:00–10:00 AEST window.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by wind at 948.46 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 295.91 MW and gas OCGT adding 280.57 MW. Battery storage is providing a marginal 0.67 MW and solar is at zero, consistent with the pre-dawn period. Wind accounts for approximately 62% of the 1,525 MW being generated locally. Carbon intensity sits at 0.2146 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 62.21%, both materially improved from the early-morning lows where intensity peaked at 0.4696 tCO2/MWh and renewables dropped to 17.56% at 07:00 AEST — a period when wind output was clearly suppressed and gas plant carried the bulk of dispatch. Weather conditions show 7.4°C, minimal wind (1.9 km/h) and only 16% cloud cover; today's outlook forecasts a maximum of 14.9°C with low average wind potential (1.2/100), which limits confidence in sustained high wind output through the day.

Predispatch forecasts show prices stepping up from the current level through the early morning before easing: $138.04/MWh at 07:00 AEST, rising to $175.98/MWh by 09:00 AEST, then retreating through the $96–$100/MWh range in the 12:00–13:30 AEST window as demand softens. A morning re-escalation is forecast, with 08:00 AEST printing $161.61/MWh and 09:30 AEST reaching $195.32/MWh — the intraday high in the predispatch profile. Afternoon prices are projected to ease considerably, with the 16:00–18:00 AEST window forecast between $79.94/MWh and $81.19/MWh as demand tapers. The best flexible load window today sits in the 17:30–18:30 AEST period, where forecast prices average $75.34/MWh, saving approximately $120/MWh against the morning peak.

Two active market notices are relevant to SA participants. From 25 June, AEMO increased the cap on dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible — a structural change to SA's frequency response procurement that market participants should account for in FCAS exposure calculations. Separately, an active inter-regional transfer notice (N-BU_7118) related to the Buronga B Bus 220 kV isolator constraint remains in force, with