Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 28 June 2026
The spot price sits at $67.41/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,523.81 MW. That marks a recovery from the overnight floor — prices fell as low as $0/MWh during the 03:45–04:00 AEST window as strong wind generation outpaced demand across the early hours. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: a sustained morning peak ran from roughly 16:35–19:00 AEST with prices consistently above $100/MWh (peaking at $107.38/MWh at 06:25 UTC), collapsing into near-zero or zero-dollar pricing through the 03:25–05:00 AEST window, before recovering toward current levels as demand rebuilds into the Monday morning. The average across the last 24 hours sits approximately in the low-to-mid $60s/MWh, placing the current price marginally above that mean.
Wind is dominating the current generation mix at 1,471.11 MW — the overwhelmingly dominant source on the grid right now. Gas CCGT contributes 60 MW, battery storage is net discharging at 23.35 MW, and gas OCGT is effectively idle at 0.11 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions at 06:30 AEST on a fully overcast morning (100% cloud cover, 12.2°C). Renewable penetration sits at 96.13% and carbon intensity is 0.019 tCO2/MWh — near the floor of today's range. During the morning demand ramp between 06:30–10:00 AEST, intensity climbed to 0.10–0.11 tCO2/MWh as gas generation stepped up to meet peak demand approaching 2,025 MW, before wind reasserted and intensity dropped back below 0.02 tCO2/MWh through the midday and afternoon periods. Current conditions represent the low end of today's carbon intensity band.
Predispatch forecasts signal a significant price step-up over the coming hours. From the current $67.41/MWh, prices are forecast to reach $81.28/MWh by 07:00 AEST, climbing through $101.04/MWh by 08:30 AEST and holding at or near $101/MWh through to approximately 19:00 AEST (07:00 UTC). The notable exception is a sharp spike to $128.44/MWh forecast for the 08:30 AEST (18:30 UTC) interval, coinciding with the peak morning demand window. Prices are then forecast to retreat sharply after 23:30 AEST into the $25–$43/MWh range through the overnight period. Flexible load operators should note the optimal shifting windows fall between 01:30–05:30 AEST tomorrow, with prices forecast as low as $25.46/MWh at 01:30 AEST (savings of up to $101/MWh versus the morning peak).
Three active market notices warrant attention for SA today. AEMO has issued a non-conformance notice against battery unit CGBESS01 for a 43 MW deviation scheduled at 05:55–06:00 AEST this morning, with constraint NC-S_CGBESS01 active — watch for any flow implications during the morning ramp.