Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 27 June 2026

The spot price sits at $72.37/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 1,411 MW — a marked easing from the overnight peak period where prices ran between $100–$167/MWh through the 07:00–09:15 AEST window. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic winter evening ramp that peaked at $166.21/MWh around 08:15 AEST before steadily retreating through the morning as wind output strengthened. The current reading sits near the daily low, consistent with the mid-morning demand trough on a Sunday.

Wind dominates the generation mix at 1,538.82 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 82.02 MW, battery dispatch at 16.01 MW, and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.11 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 94.98% and carbon intensity is 0.0246 tCO2/MWh — among the lowest readings of the day. That compares to the overnight low-wind period around 08:25–08:55 AEST when intensity reached 0.2750 tCO2/MWh and renewables fell to 54%. Today's wind potential forecast of 6.3 (average) supports continued strong wind output through the day, though 69% average cloud cover limits solar contribution to the afternoon shoulder period.

Predispatch forecasts show prices drifting lower through the overnight trough — falling to $49.02/MWh around 12:30–14:00 AEST and $27–29/MWh through the 01:30–04:00 AEST window — before rebounding on the morning demand ramp to $103.44/MWh by 18:00 AEST. The most attractive demand-flexibility windows fall between 03:30–04:30 AEST ($50.18/MWh average) and 01:30–04:30 AEST ($28/MWh band). Traders managing load-shifting or battery charge scheduling should target the 01:30–04:00 AEST block, which offers the deepest discount versus today's peak.

Two reserve notices are active for SA. AEMO declared a Forecast LOR2 for 30 June from 08:00–08:30 AEST and 09:30–10:30 AEST, with available reserves falling 8–13 MW below the capacity reserve requirement — a thin margin. A subsequent notice (issued 05:45 AEST today) cancels this LOR2, indicating a market response has resolved the shortfall. A Forecast LOR1 remains active for 3 July, covering 08:00–10:00 AEST and 16:30 AEST through to 04:00 AEST on 4 July, with reserve deficits of 52–43 MW. Grid engineers and retailers with SA exposure should monitor the 3 July window closely as winter heating demand and the LOR1 horizon align. The Tungkillo–Tailem Bend 275kV line returned to service at 11:30 AEST on 27 June, restoring full interconnector transfer capability on that corridor. AEMO also raised the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW from 25 June, expanding frequency