Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 25 June 2026
The spot price sits at $139.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,592 MW — a marked step down from the morning peak that saw prices repeatedly breach $200/MWh between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST, touching $220/MWh at 17:25–17:30. The 24-hour rolling average across the price history sits in the $130–$140/MWh range once those morning peaks are factored in, though the midday trough (13:00–15:30 AEST) brought prices as low as $88/MWh as demand fell below 1,600 MW. The current reading represents a rebound off that afternoon floor, consistent with a typical winter evening demand build.
The generation mix at this interval is wind-dominated: wind is contributing 956.85 MW, gas CCGT 434.46 MW, gas OCGT 405.74 MW, battery 12.9 MW, and solar 0 MW (as expected at this hour). Total scheduled generation is approximately 1,810 MW. Wind accounts for roughly 53% of the dispatch stack, with gas CCGT and OCGT together covering around 46%. Renewable penetration sits at 53.58% and carbon intensity is 0.2633 tCO₂/MWh — a notable improvement from the morning peak period, where intensity reached as high as 0.3813 tCO₂/MWh at 06:30 AEST when wind output was softer and gas carried more load. The diurnal carbon pattern today has been pronounced: overnight wind strength pushed intensity below 0.18 tCO₂/MWh around 03:30 AEST, before the morning demand ramp compressed renewables' share to a low of 33% and drove intensity to its daily high.
Predispatch forecasts point to a materially higher price environment through tonight and into the Friday morning peak. Prices are forecast to lift from $121/MWh at 07:00 AEST, escalating through $163/MWh by 07:30, $176–$198/MWh across 08:00–09:00, and holding in the $175–$198/MWh band until around 10:30 AEST. The morning peak is the sharpest signal: $229/MWh at 08:30 AEST (18:30 UTC), $234/MWh at 09:30, and $237/MWh at 10:00 AEST — the highest forecast interval in the forward curve. Prices are then expected to ease through the afternoon, falling to $117–$124/MWh from 14:00 AEST onwards. Today's weather outlook is relevant context: Adelaide sits at 7.9°C with minimal wind (4 km/h, wind potential 0.1), though the daily forecast suggests clearer skies than recent days (16% average cloud cover, max 13.6°C) — meaning some solar contribution is possible from mid-morning, which may soften the upper end of the peak if wind also improves.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant item for SA is AEMO's notice (144326) confirming that from 25 June 2026 the cap on dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in the SA region increases from 100 MW to 150 MW during credible isl