Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $500.44/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,672 MW. That price is well above the 24-hour average of approximately $370/MWh — a figure shaped by a pronounced morning peak that saw intervals touch $845/MWh (08:55 AEST) and $762/MWh (08:30 AEST) during the winter demand surge, before prices eased through the afternoon to a $299–$312/MWh band, then crept back above $490/MWh into the evening. The current reading marks a re-escalation as overnight heating demand builds. Temperature in Adelaide sits at 4.3°C with heating demand at 13.7 units and negligible wind or solar potential, so there is no near-term natural relief from variable generation.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows gas OCGTs contributing 554.69 MW, gas CCGTs at 485.83 MW, battery dispatch at 121.17 MW, and wind at 53.37 MW. Solar generation is zero, as expected overnight. Renewables are contributing 14.36% of the current mix, with carbon intensity at 0.4927 tCO2/MWh. That intensity figure has been elevated since roughly 08:00 AEST, climbing from a trough of 0.31 tCO2/MWh in the early hours — when wind penetration reached as high as 44% with demand near its overnight low — to its current level as gas-fired generation ramps to meet the heating-driven load. Wind potential remains near zero for today's outlook (average 0.2 out of scale) and cloud cover averages 56% across the day, capping solar upside during daylight hours.

Predispatch forecasts signal a sharply elevated overnight period before today's business day begins. Prices are forecast at $380/MWh for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window, then step up materially: $874/MWh at 08:00, $875/MWh at 08:30–09:00 AEST, and $923/MWh at 09:00 AEST — closely mirroring the pattern seen this morning. A brief reprieve is forecast around 10:00–10:30 AEST ($312/MWh) before prices ease further through the afternoon, reaching $141–$172/MWh between 15:30 and 17:00 AEST. An isolated $875/MWh spike reappears in the 01:00 AEST window overnight. Optimal load windows sit in the 15:30–16:30 AEST band at approximately $145/MWh and 14:00–15:00 AEST at $173/MWh — savings of $778/MWh and $750/MWh respectively against the forecast peak.

Two active market notices carry direct relevance for SA. AEMO issued notice 144329 confirming a short-notice rating change on the Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator, invoking constraint set N-BU_7118, which has the V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) interconnector on its left-hand side — this limits SA's import capacity from Victoria and contributes to the elevated price environment. Additionally, from 25 June 2026