Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at $165.68/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,620 MW — a marked improvement from the sustained high-price period seen during the 07:30–08:30 AEST window overnight, when prices repeatedly breached $600–$875/MWh on demand exceeding 2,100 MW. The 24-hour price trajectory tells a clear story: prices peaked aggressively through the evening peak, then compressed steadily through midday to sub-$115/MWh as demand fell below 1,600 MW, before lifting modestly into this morning's period. The current read is broadly in line with the mid-session lows and represents a normalised trading environment relative to last night's volatility.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST (latest trading interval) shows wind contributing 673 MW, gas OCGT at 453 MW, gas CCGT at 424 MW, battery at 8 MW, and solar at 0 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Total scheduled generation sits around 1,558 MW against the metered demand of 1,621 MW, with the balance sourced via interconnector flows. Renewable penetration stands at 43.73% and carbon intensity is 0.3223 tCO2/MWh — a material improvement from the overnight nadir of 0.5466 tCO2/MWh recorded at 07:00 AEST when wind output was suppressed and gas carried the bulk of dispatch. The intensity trajectory through the day improved consistently as wind generation strengthened, reaching a session low around 0.2569 tCO2/MWh at approximately 03:25 AEST when renewables reached 55.56% penetration.

Predispatch forecasts point to a gradual price escalation through the remainder of this morning and into the pre-dawn hours. From the current $165.68/MWh, the forward curve rises to $170/MWh at 07:00 AEST, $196/MWh by 07:30 AEST, and peaks at $241/MWh around 08:30 AEST and again near $240/MWh at 16:00 AEST, consistent with the morning ramp as heating demand builds into a cold day — the current temperature sits at 5.5°C with 96% cloud cover and a maximum of only 14.6°C forecast. Solar potential is negligible today under heavy overcast conditions, leaving wind and gas to carry the load balance. Prices ease to $104/MWh by 11:00 AEST before a secondary mid-afternoon nudge. Optimal flexible load windows are concentrated between 10:30–11:30 AEST at $104–$130/MWh and again in the 23:30–00:30 AEST overnight band at $105–$118/MWh.

Two market notices carry direct relevance for SA today. The active constraint set N-BU_7118 on the Buronga B Bus 220kV isolator — affecting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector (Murraylink) — remains in force following the short-notice rating change on 23 June, limiting the capacity of the SA–VIC transfer path and contributing to price separation risk. Separately, effective from today 25 June, AEMO is lifting the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in SA