Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 22 June 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $230/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp recovery from the overnight price spike that drove ten consecutive intervals to the $20,300/MWh market cap between 07:20 and 08:10 AEST. That extreme episode has fully cleared, with prices settling into a $227–$312/MWh band through most of the subsequent trading day. The current generation mix totals approximately 1,321 MW of dispatchable output: gas OCGT contributes 543 MW, gas CCGT 531 MW, wind 176 MW, and battery 70 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with overnight conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 18.68%, with carbon intensity at 0.4643 tCO2/MWh — materially lower than the 0.54–0.57 tCO2/MWh range observed during the spike event, when renewable contribution fell as low as 4–8%.

The predispatch forecast points to a continued price softening in the immediate term, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour forecast at $160/MWh and the 08:00–09:00 AEST window settling around $197–$217/MWh. However, prices are forecast to firm markedly from 09:30 AEST onwards, with the 10:00 AEST half-hour at $338/MWh and the 10:30 AEST interval at $498/MWh. The morning peak window from 13:00–14:00 AEST carries forecasts of $899/MWh and $875/MWh respectively. The afternoon and evening period from 15:30 AEST through to 18:00 AEST sits consistently in the $875/MWh range, indicating that gas-fired capacity is expected to set price across the bulk of today's trading day. Optimal load scheduling windows are the 07:00–08:00 AEST hour at a forecast average of $179/MWh and the 08:00–09:00 AEST hour at $219/MWh, before the step-up takes hold.

Two active market notices carry direct relevance to SA today. AEMO issued notice 144321 confirming a planned short-notice outage of Murraylink at 22:30 AEST on 22 June, invoking constraint set I-MURRAYLINK and binding both the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors. This reduces SA's access to Victorian import capacity and is a contributing factor in the elevated predispatch pricing from mid-morning onward. Separately, multiple SETTLEMENTS RESIDUE notices (144306, 144308, 144309, 144310, 144311) document repeated triggering and cancellation of the NRM_SA1_VIC1 negative residue constraint on the SA-to-VIC directional flow during this morning's early trading; the constraint last ceased operating at 07:50 AEST. A PDPASA RESERVE NOTICE (144315) also flagged a forecast LOR3 condition in SA for the 08:00–08:30 AEST window on 22 June, though AEMO assessed load shedding as unlikely given available intervention options — the period has now passed without a formal LOR3 declaration.

With cloud cover at 98% and wind potential minimal at 1.1 on a scale to