Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 21 June 2026

The SA spot price sits at $3,130.31/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with prices under active AEMO review — five consecutive intervals from 06:15 through 06:35 AEST carry "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, meaning these figures may be revised. The 06:20 interval earlier printed $3,130.31/MWh and the 06:25 interval $2,061.37/MWh, representing a sharp escalation from the $300–$560/MWh range that characterised most of the overnight session. Total demand sits at 1,596.7 MW, broadly in line with a typical winter evening profile. Context from the prior 24 hours is stark: prices were running at $90–$160/MWh in the early hours before a sustained climb from around 19:30 AEST pushed into the $300–$500/MWh range, with two brief excursions above $15,000/MWh and $20,000/MWh occurring around 19:35–19:45 AEST — those intervals were also subject to review, with the 06:10 AEST interval subsequently confirmed unchanged.

The current generation mix is dominated by gas, with OCGT contributing 848.77 MW and CCGT a further 605.15 MW — together accounting for roughly 91% of local output. Wind is generating 43.98 MW and battery dispatch is providing 108.75 MW, while solar output sits at zero, consistent with the 06:30 AEST winter dark period. Renewable penetration is 9.51%, up from lows of under 2% seen across the mid-afternoon window. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5279 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the gas-heavy mix; this is a significant shift from the overnight period when wind and battery were contributing more substantially — intensity bottomed near 0.249 tCO2/MWh around 02:30–03:00 AEST when renewables were providing close to 58% of supply. A critical network constraint notice is active: the Roseworthy–Templers 132 kV line suffered a short-notice outage at 09:30 AEST yesterday, invoking constraint set S-TPRS and binding on interconnectors V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 — this is directly limiting SA's import capability from Victoria and via Murraylink, tightening the region's supply-demand balance and amplifying price volatility.

Predispatch forecasts (issued at 06:01 AEST) point to elevated but declining prices through the morning. The next two half-hours are forecast at $214/MWh and $312/MWh respectively, before a step up to $556/MWh at 08:00 AEST and a peak of $717/MWh at 08:30 AEST — coinciding with the morning demand ramp as Adelaide wakes to a 5.2°C temperature with heating demand at 12.8 units. Prices are then forecast to ease through the business day, settling in the $300–$510/MWh range from 10:00–12:00 AEST before falling more sharply to $138–$178/MWh through the afternoon and evening. Overnight troughs are forecast in the $139–$194/