Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 29 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at **$139.01/MWh** at 06:00 AEST, with total demand at 1,536 MW — a relatively modest level consistent with the overnight-to-early-morning trough. That current price represents a significant step down from the sustained peak this morning (AEST), where prices ran between **$350–$840/MWh** during the 17:00–19:00 AEST window and briefly touched $840/MWh at 17:15 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear evening peak structure: prices were in the $68–$82/MWh range at the start of the period, escalated sharply through the pre-dawn morning peak, and have since retreated through the afternoon and early evening back toward the $128–$139/MWh band. Carbon intensity sits at **0.2746 tCO2/MWh** with renewables contributing **54.05%** of generation — a material deterioration from the near-zero intensity recorded at 07:00 AEST (0.0206 tCO2/MWh, 95.8% renewable) as evening gas dispatch has increased.

The current generation mix is dominated by **wind at 683 MW** and **gas OCGT at 394 MW**, with **gas CCGT contributing 192 MW** and **battery dispatch at 6 MW**. Solar is at zero, consistent with the 06:00 AEST timestamp and 98% cloud cover at 11.8°C. Gas turbines — both open and combined cycle — are collectively providing around 38% of generation, which explains the elevated carbon intensity relative to daytime readings. Wind is the single largest source at approximately 50% of the dispatch stack. The weather outlook for today (30 June) shows average wind potential of 5.1 and near-zero solar potential under 93% average cloud cover, meaning the generation mix profile is unlikely to shift materially through the day unless wind ramps up.

Predispatch forecasts signal a clear upward price trajectory through the early hours before a pronounced midday collapse. Prices are forecast to rise from **$119/MWh at 07:00 AEST** to **$227/MWh by 09:00 AEST**, with elevated readings around **$197–$224/MWh persisting through to 11:00–11:30 AEST**. A sharp transition is then forecast from midday, with prices dropping below $100/MWh by 20:30 AEST, bottoming out at sub-$10/MWh between 03:00–03:30 AEST (01 July) and reaching near-zero by 04:00 AEST. Load-shifting opportunities are concentrated in the **23:30–00:30 AEST window** (avg $24/MWh) and the **01:00–03:00 AEST window** (avg $9–$17/MWh), offering savings of $200+/MWh versus the morning peak.

Two reserve notices warrant attention. AEMO has active **Forecast LOR1 notices for SA on 3, 4, and 5 July 2026**, with reserve shortfalls ranging from 30–52 MW across multiple periods — the 4 July notice covers two separate windows including overnight. The earlier LOR2 forecast for today (30 June, 08:00–10:30