Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 29 June 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $25.18/MWh with total demand at 1,105.93 MW at 06:30 AEST — a sharp contrast to the peak of 1,423.86 MW and $79.24/MWh reached during the overnight morning period around 08:15–08:25 AEST. Demand has been climbing steadily from a trough of around 950 MW in the mid-afternoon, rising approximately 155 MW over the past two hours as evening heating load builds under 7.9°C conditions with 99% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 10.1. The price has held tightly at $25.18/MWh across the past hour despite this demand build, indicating current supply is comfortably ahead of load at this level.

The price-demand relationship across today's trading data reveals a clear threshold effect. Prices remain in the $25–$42/MWh range while demand sits below approximately 1,150 MW, then step up toward the $69–$82/MWh band as demand pushes above 1,250 MW, with a brief spike to $107.97/MWh at the 07:00 AEST interval when demand crossed 1,287 MW. The transition from the $25/MWh floor to the $70+/MWh band is notably abrupt, suggesting a steep section of the supply stack is engaged once baseload hydro and wind capacity is fully committed. Hydro is currently generating 982.79 MW with wind contributing 128.43 MW, together covering current demand with no gas OCGT dispatch required.

The forward forecast points to a significant price escalation through the overnight period. Prices are forecast to remain near $25–$27/MWh for the next 30–60 minutes before stepping to ~$50/MWh around 08:00 AEST, then lifting to $81/MWh at 09:00 AEST as the morning demand peak builds. The 09:00–13:00 AEST window is forecast at $71–$80/MWh, consistent with demand returning to the 1,300–1,400 MW range seen during this morning's equivalent period. The overnight temperature ceiling of 12.3°C today and a fully overcast outlook with zero solar potential remove any demand-moderating effect from solar self-consumption, making the heating-driven morning ramp highly probable.

For demand-side participants, the cheapest load window of the day is forecast between 22:30 and 04:00 AEST at $24.63–$25.20/MWh — roughly $55–$57/MWh below the forecast morning peak. Any flexible industrial or commercial load with the ability to shift consumption to this window faces a clear economic case to do so. There are no Tasmania-specific market notices active today; the AEMO notices in circulation relate to NSW and SA network outages and SA reserve conditions, with no direct constraint implications for TAS1 pricing or interconnector capacity on Basslink.