Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 26 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 1,264 MW and $79.18/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand having retraced from an overnight peak of around 1,471 MW reached during the 17:55–18:25 AEST morning peak period (UTC 07:55–08:25). The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: when demand climbed through the 1,380–1,470 MW band during the morning peak, prices consistently held in the $100–$122/MWh range, with the highest prints — $121.47/MWh at 17:00 AEST and $120.16/MWh at 20:35 AEST — tracking the steepest demand gradient. Conversely, the overnight trough between approximately 12:00–14:45 AEST (UTC 02:00–04:45), where demand fell to a session low near 1,053 MW, saw prices compress sharply to $41.20/MWh for a sustained 45-minute block — the day's price floor and a clear reflection of Tasmania's dispatchable hydro stack stepping back during low-load conditions.

Current demand at 1,264 MW sits in a transitional zone. The afternoon period (roughly 02:00–09:00 AEST UTC, or 12:00–19:00 AEST local) saw demand plateau in the 1,145–1,205 MW band with prices anchored at the $70.22/MWh floor, confirming that band as a low-marginal-cost dispatch zone. From 19:00 AEST onward demand has been climbing steadily — up from 1,147 MW at 03:00 UTC to 1,264 MW now — and prices have lifted in step, moving from $70.22/MWh back toward the high $70s. The $79–$80/MWh range appears to represent the first meaningful dispatch step above the floor, consistent with Tasmania's hydro scheduling as load builds into the evening.

The forward forecast is benign through the overnight and early morning, with AEMO pricing the 21:00–11:30 AEST window (UTC 11:00–01:30) largely at $79.26/MWh, with one isolated print of $85.48/MWh at 09:00 AEST. The morning demand ramp — which drove prices above $100/MWh when demand crossed approximately 1,280 MW on the way up today — is the key watch point. Forecasts flag $120.24/MWh at 17:00 AEST (UTC 07:00) and again at 19:30 AEST (UTC 09:30), consistent with yesterday's pattern of sustained triple-digit pricing as demand pushes back through the 1,380–1,470 MW band. One outlier stands out: a $188.35/MWh forecast print at 00:30 AEST Saturday (UTC 14:30) warrants attention, sitting well above any other forecast interval and suggesting a potential constraint or dispatch tightness in the mid-afternoon that is not explained by the demand trajectory alone.

Weather is a material demand driver today. Hobart sits at 4.5°C with a heating demand index of 13.5 and a forecast maximum of just 11.6°C, sustaining residential and commercial space heating load across the day. Wind potential is low (0.4