Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 27 June 2026

Tasmania spot is at $70.22/MWh with demand sitting at 1,150.9 MW as of 06:30 AEST — well below today's intraday peak of 1,460.6 MW recorded around 19:50–20:00 AEST and the overnight demand peak of approximately 1,415 MW seen through the 08:00–10:30 AEST window. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours has been notably inelastic across most of the range: the $79.26/MWh price floor held from roughly 1,200 MW through to the 1,460 MW peak with virtually no price response to rising load, reflecting Tasmania's hydro-dominated, price-stable dispatch stack. The sole exception was a brief spike to $234.64/MWh at 08:00 AEST during the evening demand ramp when load crossed 1,389 MW, which resolved within two intervals — consistent with a transient dispatch constraint rather than sustained supply tightness.

Current demand at 1,150.9 MW reflects the typical Sunday pre-dawn trough for Tasmania, with 2.1°C on the ground and heating demand index at 15.9. The day's trajectory from here follows a predictable winter Sunday pattern: demand is already creeping back — up from a low of around 1,110 MW at 05:00 AEST — and will rebuild toward a morning peak as households activate heating post-sunrise, with a forecast maximum temperature of only 10.7°C today. Spot pricing maps this directly: the forecast shows $70.22/MWh holding through the 12:00–16:00 AEST window as Sunday midday demand sits in the 1,150–1,250 MW range, before stepping back to $79.26/MWh from approximately 17:00 AEST as the afternoon-evening demand build commences. The most notable forecast feature is a lift to $84.23/MWh across the 18:30–20:30 AEST window, aligning with the expected winter evening peak when heating demand typically drives Tasmanian load toward 1,400–1,460 MW.

The two-tier price structure — $70.22/MWh in the trough versus $84.23/MWh at the evening peak — represents a $14.01/MWh spread across today's demand cycle. That is a modest differential by NEM standards, reinforcing that Tasmania's generation stack is absorbing today's winter demand profile without material stress. The brief excursions to sub-$45/MWh around 20:50–21:00 AEST are outliers consistent with interconnector flow adjustments or short-interval dispatch anomalies rather than structural oversupply. For demand-side participants, the lowest-cost load windows are forecast between 13:00–16:00 AEST at $70.22/MWh — capturing the Sunday afternoon demand trough before the evening ramp — with the period from 02:00–06:00 AEST tomorrow also holding at $70.22/MWh as overnight demand settles below 1,200 MW.