Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 28 June 2026
Tasmania sits at $70.20/MWh with demand at 1,276 MW as of 06:30 AEST, rising steadily through this morning's winter peak build. The demand trajectory over the past two hours tells the story clearly: load has climbed from around 1,205 MW at 06:00 AEST toward the current level, tracking the same morning ramp pattern visible in the overnight data where demand peaked near 1,358 MW at 18:00 AEST and prices held at $79.26/MWh throughout. That $79.26 level appears to be the key threshold — prices locked to it across virtually every dispatch interval where demand exceeded roughly 1,270 MW, while intervals below that level revert to the $70.22 floor. The current $70.20 reading sits just at that transition zone, meaning the next 60–90 minutes of morning demand growth will likely push prices back to the $79 band as load climbs toward what the overnight pattern suggests is a 1,300–1,360 MW morning peak.
The day's most notable price event in the history is the two-interval spike to $119.73/MWh at 10:35 AEST and $94.11/MWh at 10:40 AEST, occurring as demand was declining from its overnight peak — pointing to a supply-side dispatch constraint or interconnector tightness rather than demand pressure. A brief $0.11/MWh interval at 04:55 AEST and multiple $27.20/MWh intervals through the afternoon (00:30–02:30 AEST) signal periods of surplus generation dispatched well below the floor, consistent with wind output running ahead of demand during the overnight trough when load fell to a session low near 932 MW at 13:45 AEST.
The forecast price curve for the rest of today is structured and instructive. Prices are expected to hold at $70.20/MWh through 07:00–08:00 AEST, lift to $79.24/MWh from 08:00 through 11:00 AEST as daytime demand consolidates, then step down sharply through the midday period to $40.28/MWh around 16:00–17:00 AEST and collapse to $27.18/MWh from approximately 20:00 AEST onward into tonight. That afternoon softness aligns with today's weather outlook — temperatures reaching a maximum of only 14.3°C, cloud cover at 57%, and very low wind potential of 0.8 — meaning heating demand eases from its overnight peak and no weather-driven demand spike is expected this afternoon.
Current weather at 3.7°C with 93% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 14.3 confirms this is a typical Tasmanian winter morning, where space heating load is the primary demand driver. Generation is currently 1,066 MW hydro and 195 MW wind with gas OCGT at zero, covering demand with no thermal backup required. For demand-side managers, the $27.18/MWh windows forecast from 20:00–23:00 AEST tonight represent the lowest-cost intervals of the day — a $127/MWh saving against the morning peak — and carry low execution risk given the structural nature of Tasmania's overnight demand trough.