Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 25 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 1,254.79 MW and $71.94/MWh at 06:30 AEST, demand rising steadily from an overnight trough of around 1,028 MW reached through the 02:00–03:00 AEST window. That trough coincided with prices anchoring firmly at $60–70/MWh, demonstrating the region's characteristic price floor during low-demand overnight periods. The current morning ramp is tracking the same shape seen across the price history dataset, where demand climbing from ~1,140 MW toward the 1,400–1,500 MW range consistently pushes prices into the $90–120/MWh band, with intermittent spikes to $220+ $/MWh during rapid load pick-up intervals around 07:00–09:00 AEST. At 3.1°C and a heating demand index of 14.9, this morning's cold conditions are the direct driver of that ramp — today's forecast maximum of 11.3°C means sustained heating load through the day.

The price–demand relationship in today's data is notably non-linear above approximately 1,380 MW. Below that level prices generally hold in the $70–92/MWh range, but once demand breaches ~1,390 MW the market has repeatedly printed $110–228/MWh. The morning peak already reached 1,445 MW at 19:00 AEST (09:00 AEST local), where prices spiked to $228/MWh, before easing back as demand pulled off that level. The forward curve reflects this dynamic: forecasts hold $70–80/MWh through the overnight and pre-dawn trough, then flag $120/MWh at 19:30 AEST (09:30 AEST), $120/MWh at 21:00 AEST (11:00 AEST), and a notable $155/MWh at 23:00 AEST (13:00 AEST) — suggesting AEMO's dispatch engine anticipates a secondary demand-driven price excursion mid-afternoon as heating load persists.

The evening peak warrants close attention. The price history shows that as demand approached 1,500 MW around 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC equivalent), prices cleared $228/MWh before retreating sharply. With today's overnight temperature forecast staying near 3.6°C minimum and heating demand elevated, demand is likely to rebuild toward the 1,400+ MW range from approximately 17:00–20:00 AEST. Forecast prices in that window sit at $70–80/MWh, which appears conservative given how sensitively the market has priced this demand level through the current period — traders should treat those forecast levels as a floor rather than a ceiling if demand tracks above 1,390 MW. The AEMO notice confirming cancellation of the Woolnorth wind farm credible contingency reclassification (constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL revoked at 13:30 AEST) removes one binding constraint that had been active in the Tasmanian dispatch stack, and may provide modest additional generation headroom into tonight's peak.

Generation is currently 1,127 MW hydro and 51.57 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, and carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh. The prior LOR1 notice for 08:00–09