Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $79.23/MWh with demand at 1,289.74 MW as of 06:30 AEST, rising steadily from a session trough of around 1,074 MW in the mid-afternoon. The demand trajectory is tracking the classic winter evening ramp — up roughly 215 MW over the past two hours — and prices are responding in kind, lifting from a floor of $70.20/MWh that held through much of the afternoon. The price-demand relationship today has been sharp at the margins: when demand breached 1,390 MW during the morning peak (around 17:55–18:30 AEST), spot spiked to $222–$225/MWh across multiple intervals, underscoring how thin the margin between orderly dispatch and price escalation is in this island grid.

The demand profile today has followed a textbook winter pattern: a morning peak near 1,394 MW around 17:55 AEST (06:55 UTC), a midday trough near 1,082 MW, and now a recovering evening load. With temperature sitting at 6.5°C, 100% cloud cover, and a heating demand index of 11.5, residential load is the primary driver of this evening ramp. Generation is currently 1,063.51 MW hydro and 46.09 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero — the system is running lean on dispatchable headroom as demand climbs toward what is likely to be a second evening peak above 1,300 MW within the next 30–60 minutes.

The forward price strip reflects this risk directly. Forecasts hold at $78–$82/MWh through to around 08:00 AEST, then jump sharply to $165.64/MWh at 17:00 AEST and $233.92/MWh at 17:30 AEST tomorrow morning — the same demand window that produced today's price spikes. A further elevated interval at $222.24/MWh is forecast for 19:00 AEST. Note that a Forecast LOR1 for Tasmania on 25 June (08:00–09:00 AEST) was issued on 18 June but has since been cancelled per Market Notice 144327, reducing near-term reserve risk. Overnight intervals from 13:00 to 03:00 AEST are forecast at the $70.20/MWh floor, with optimal load windows concentrated between 13:00 and 15:00 AEST at $79.24/MWh.

For demand-side participants, the evening ramp now underway warrants close attention: the 200–300 MW of demand growth between 06:30 and an anticipated 08:00–08:30 AEST peak is the interval where price sensitivity is highest based on today's observed pattern. Flexible loads that can shift to the overnight trough (13:00–15:00 AEST) capture savings of approximately $154–$155/MWh against the forecast morning peak. Tomorrow's morning peak exposure — particularly the 17:00–18:00 AEST window — is the primary price risk for the next trading day.