Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 7 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $0.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1092 MW, well below the region's typical daily peak band. This near-zero pricing reflects an overnight demand trough intersecting with strong hydro output (595 MW) and wind (48 MW), leaving GAS_OCGT (124 MW) as the marginal flexible unit even at low prices.
The overnight-to-morning price trajectory shows textbook demand sensitivity. Demand bottomed near 1023 MW at 03:40 AEST, coinciding with prices at or below zero (-$0.97 to $0.75/MWh) for an extended stretch between 03:00 and 05:30 AEST. As demand climbed through the morning ramp — 1155 MW by 06:00, 1273 MW by 07:00, and peaking near 1366 MW at 08:00-08:10 AEST — prices responded sharply, spiking to $120.88/MWh at 06:30 and holding in the $95-132/MWh band through the 07:00-09:00 AEST peak. This morning peak mirrors yesterday evening's pattern, where demand near 1420 MW at 22:00 AEST drove prices to $158.44/MWh, confirming Tasmania's price curve is tightly coupled to demand once above ~1300 MW.
Forecast data points to a mild day ahead: AEMO's demand-forecast rows are effectively zero-populated in this dataset, but the forecast RRP curve tells the story — prices ease back toward $5-20/MWh through the 21:00-23:30 AEST window tonight, then turn negative (-$4.54 to -$7.62/MWh) from 00:00 through 04:30 and again 16:00-18:00 AEST tomorrow. This suggests demand will stay soft outside the two daily peaks, consistent with today's mild forecast (max 13.6°C, low heating/cooling demand) and 91% cloud cover limiting solar offset. Identified low-price windows (01:00-05:00 and 17:30-18:30 AEST) offer $22-27/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load, reinforcing that Tasmania's price risk today is concentrated in the two demand-ramp windows rather than sustained high pricing.
No demand-side market notices are active for TAS1 today; the only regional notices relate to historical contingency reclassifications on Tasmanian transmission lines (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town), all now cancelled, with no current network constraints affecting today's demand-price relationship.