Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $105.09/MWh at 06:30 AEST as demand climbs to 1231 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of 976 MW recorded around 15:35 AEST yesterday. The current interval confirms a tight demand-price relationship: as demand pushed through 1300 MW during yesterday's evening peak (20:35-21:10 AEST), prices spiked to a cap of $88.24-$116/MWh repeatedly, before easing to the $50-70/MWh band once demand fell below 1350 MW into the early hours. That pattern is repeating this morning — demand has risen roughly 260 MW since 05:00 AEST as the morning ramp takes hold, and price has followed, climbing from $88.24/MWh to over $145/MWh briefly at 07:00 AEST before settling near $105-120/MWh through the 07:00-11:30 AEST window.
The forecast trajectory flags a much sharper price response ahead. AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding near $70-90/MWh through the remainder of this morning before surging to $252-398/MWh between 08:00 and 10:30 AEST tomorrow (05 August), with the peak forecast at $398.49/MWh at 10:00 AEST. This is a materially steeper demand-price gradient than today's pattern, suggesting tighter reserve margins or a supply-side change is expected into tomorrow's morning peak — worth flagging for any exposure carried past this evening. Today's own late-morning window (09:00-13:00 AEST) is likely to see prices firm into the $100-120/MWh range on the back of continued demand build, consistent with the current 09:00-11:30 AEST readings already sitting at $102-120/MWh on demand around 1200-1320 MW.
Generation mix data shows hydro carrying 1233 MW of the current 1231 MW demand, with wind contributing 69 MW and gas OCGT adding 237 MW at the margin — indicating gas is being dispatched to cover peak demand periods rather than baseload, consistent with the price spikes coinciding with demand upswings. Renewable penetration is 84.6% and carbon intensity sits at 0.100 tCO2/MWh, both easing slightly from the 90%+ renewable share seen overnight as gas plant responds to the morning ramp. No active TAS1-specific market notices affect today's demand-side outlook; recent lightning-related contingency reclassifications on TAS1 transmission lines have all been cancelled, leaving the network unconstrained for today's trading.