Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 6 August 2026

Tasmania is trading at $115.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1269 MW, tracking into the tail of the morning ramp after overnight demand troughed near 1050-1090 MW between 02:30 and 04:00 AEST, where prices fell as low as $30-40/MWh. The region shows tight demand-price coupling this morning: as demand climbed from ~1090 MW at 04:00 to 1269 MW currently, prices rose in step from the $30-50/MWh band through to consistent $100-130/MWh readings from 07:00 AEST onwards, with a brief spike to $450.08/MWh at 03:00 AEST on a single 5-minute dispatch interval unrelated to the broader demand trend.

Demand is on a clear morning ramp and is forecast to keep building toward a working-day peak. AEMO's forecast curve points to elevated pricing risk through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window, with predispatch estimates spiking to $189.61/MWh at 08:30 AEST and $165.08/MWh at 11:00 AEST, consistent with demand pushing past 1300-1350 MW as it did in yesterday's equivalent period (demand peaked near 1413 MW around 21:45 AEST last night, coinciding with prices above $240/MWh). Given hydro generation currently sits at 1341 MW against total generation of ~1670 MW, the region has ample dispatchable headroom, but gas OCGT output of 207 MW already contributing to the mix suggests marginal units are being called on during the ramp, which explains the price sensitivity as demand climbs.

Looking at the rest of the day, forecast prices ease sharply after the late-morning peak, dropping to $88.24/MWh through 13:00-13:30 AEST and then falling into single digits from 14:00 AEST through to 18:00 AEST ($10.09, $4.16, $0.12/MWh), reflecting an expected steep fall in demand into the afternoon trough. This mirrors yesterday's pattern where demand bottomed near 1045-1060 MW mid-afternoon with prices holding in the $89-99/MWh range, though today's forecast troughs are considerably lower, pointing to softer afternoon demand and strong hydro output covering the load. No credible network constraints are currently active in Tasmania — the TAS1 lightning-related reclassifications from early August have all been cancelled — so today's price trajectory is being driven by demand and generation dispatch rather than network limitations. Traders should watch the 08:00-11:00 AEST window for the sharpest price risk, with the overnight and afternoon periods offering low-cost load-shifting opportunities as flagged in the low-price windows around 01:00-04:30 AEST and 16:00-17:00 AEST.