Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 22 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 1,173 MW and $70.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing steadily from a session trough near 1,023 MW recorded around 04:10 AEST. The trajectory is consistent with a typical winter morning ramp — 100% overcast conditions, 7.1°C, and a heating demand index of 10.9 are all pulling load upward as households and businesses activate heating. The generation mix at this point is 794 MW hydro and 413 MW wind, with gas OCGT offline. Price sensitivity through the overnight period has been pronounced: intervals where demand pressed above 1,500 MW regularly printed $140–$235/MWh, while the midday trough below 1,050 MW produced sustained pricing in the $60–$79/MWh band. That relationship is clear and consistent across the dataset — every 300–400 MW of additional demand translates to a material step up in marginal cost.

The morning ramp is the key risk window for today. The forecast price curve escalates from $68/MWh at 07:00 AEST through $109/MWh by 08:30, peaks near $212/MWh at 09:00, and holds elevated — $173–$183/MWh — through the 10:00–10:30 AEST window. This mirrors the overnight pattern where demand in the 1,400–1,575 MW range consistently triggered prices above $140/MWh. With no solar input expected today (100% cloud cover, zero solar potential forecast for 23 June) and wind potential near negligible at 0.1, the morning peak will be carried entirely by dispatchable resources. Any constraint on hydro scheduling or Basslink flows at that time amplifies price exposure.

An active STPASA LOR1 notice for TAS on 25 June — with forecast reserves of 530 MW against a requirement of 580 MW — is a background signal worth monitoring. While today's reserve position is not flagged, it indicates system tightness is accumulating across the week. Tuesday's conditions, with a high of only 9.4°C and persistent overcast, point to sustained heating load without solar offset for the full day. Demand is unlikely to reach the 1,550–1,575 MW extremes seen overnight, but a morning peak in the 1,400–1,475 MW range — consistent with the 07:00–08:30 AEST block observed today — is sufficient to sustain prices in the $150–$212/MWh range forecast by AEMO's pre-dispatch. Flexible load operators should prioritise shifting consumption to the 07:00–08:00 AEST window ($72/MWh forecast) and avoid the 09:00–10:30 AEST exposure.