Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 1,304.55 MW and $79.28/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing steadily from a overnight trough of around 1,150 MW recorded between 03:30–04:30 AEST. The current price is stable and unremarkable, but the trajectory matters: the data shows a clear morning ramp already underway, with demand up roughly 150 MW from that overnight floor in under three hours. At 2.9°C and a heating demand index of 15.1, thermal load is the dominant driver — there is no solar contribution and wind potential is negligible at 0.2, so demand growth this morning is direct and unmitigated by embedded generation.

The price sensitivity embedded in today's history is instructive. Overnight, as demand fell below 1,250 MW through the 11:00–17:00 AEST window, spot prices compressed to a floor of $70.20/MWh with consistent stability. The moment demand cleared 1,400 MW during the morning peak — which ran from roughly 17:30 to 19:30 AEST — prices spiked repeatedly into the $160–$198/MWh range, with the peak interval at 07:25 AEST hitting $192.75/MWh against 1,303 MW of demand. That episode illustrates the supply stack dynamic in TAS1: the region transitions from a well-supplied, price-stable state below approximately 1,300 MW to a materially tighter market above 1,400 MW, where marginal generation or Basslink import capacity commands a significant premium.

The forward forecast carries a clear warning for the coming hours. Prices are projected to lift sharply from the current $79.28/MWh to $116.54/MWh by 07:00 AEST and hold broadly elevated — with spikes to $166.98/MWh at 09:00 AEST, $196.64/MWh at 16:00 AEST, and $191.23/MWh at 13:00 AEST — before retreating to the $79–$80/MWh range from 20:30 AEST onward. Given that today's minimum temperature of 2.6°C is essentially identical to current conditions and the maximum reaches only 10.9°C, heating load will remain elevated throughout the daylight hours, sustaining demand in the range where price volatility is most pronounced. Notably, a Forecast LOR1 condition is on record for TAS from 08:00–09:00 AEST today (market notice 144279), with reserve margin forecast at only 530 MW against a 580 MW requirement — this aligns precisely with the $166.98/MWh forecast at 09:00 AEST and represents the single highest-risk interval of the day.

Flexible load operators should take note of the forecast trough windows at 11:00 AEST ($79.72/MWh average) and the 15:00–16:30 AEST window ($73.23/MWh), which offer the most cost-effective load placement opportunities. Demand-side exposure is highest between 06:30 and 10:00 AEST and again in the 16:00 AEST interval, where the combination of sustained heating load, the LOR1 proximity, and constrained interconnector headroom creates the conditions for repeated price excursions well above