Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 25 June 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $144.84/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 8,978 MW and climbing as the winter morning ramp begins. Over the past 24 hours the region has traded in a wide band, with the overnight trough reaching into the high $80s and the prior evening peak hitting $232/MWh during the 17:30–19:00 AEST window. The 24-hour average across the price history sits in the $145–$150/MWh range, placing the current read broadly in line with that mean — though the trend is clearly upward from the early-morning low point near $85/MWh.
The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,544 MW, accounting for roughly 64% of in-region output. Hydro is second at 1,271 MW (15%), wind at 898 MW (10%), gas OCGT at 649 MW (7%), gas CCGT at 190 MW (2%), solar at 82 MW (1%), and battery storage contributing 21 MW. Renewables — wind, solar, and hydro combined — are contributing approximately 26% of total generation, consistent with the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.6233 tCO2/MWh. That figure has risen from a low of around 0.51 tCO2/MWh recorded in the pre-dawn hours between 01:00 and 04:30 AEST, when renewable penetration reached approximately 39–40% on lighter overnight demand. Current cloud cover sits at 95% with negligible solar potential, which limits any daytime solar contribution; today's forecast shows cloud cover easing to around 57% with a solar potential score of 3, suggesting modest midday solar output is possible.
The predispatch outlook flags a material price escalation through the morning peak. Prices are forecast at $135/MWh by 07:00 AEST, stepping to $175/MWh by 08:30 AEST, then surging toward $238/MWh at 08:00 AEST and $242–$243/MWh around 09:30–10:00 AEST. A spike to $290/MWh is forecast for 23:00 AEST, with pricing tapering back to $115–$125/MWh through the mid-afternoon. The overnight low window for flexible load sits between 10:30 and 11:30 AEST (00:30–01:30 UTC) at an average of approximately $87/MWh, offering savings of around $200/MWh against the forecast peak. Temperature today is forecast to reach just 14.9°C, maintaining moderate heating demand throughout the day.
On the network side, the most relevant active notice is the ongoing inter-regional transfer constraint N-BU_7118 on the Buronga B Bus 220kV isolator affecting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector flow, which remains in place following a short-notice rating change on 23 June. This constrains the VIC–NSW–SA transfer path and may limit the capacity of southward flows to moderate NSW pricing during stress periods. The Directlink interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1) control unavailability notice also remains active, limiting flexibility on the NSW–QLD interface. Grid stress is scored at 72.1/100, consistent with a market operating under tight winter demand and constrained interconnector head