Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 23 June 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $121.46/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 9,517 MW and rising as the morning ramp continues. Tracing back through the past 24 hours, prices peaked sharply during the 18:00–20:00 AEST window yesterday, reaching $223.91/MWh at 19:00 AEST, before easing through the overnight trough where they settled in the $68–$97/MWh range. The morning ramp is already underway — prices climbed from $95.96/MWh at 15:00 AEST to $192.94/MWh by 17:00 AEST before moderating, and the current $121.46/MWh reflects a brief softening ahead of what predispatch signals will be a significantly more elevated session this morning.
The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by black coal at 6,689 MW, with hydro contributing 1,235 MW, gas OCGT at 197 MW, gas CCGT at 189 MW, wind at 185 MW, battery at 82 MW, and solar at just 31 MW — consistent with a clear, cold winter morning where solar irradiance remains minimal (solar potential index at 0). Renewables are contributing 17.81% of generation, a notable step down from the overnight peak of 37.99% recorded around 15:55 AEST when hydro and wind were carrying more of a lighter load. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7094 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.5368 tCO2/MWh overnight as thermal plant has been dispatched to meet rising morning demand. Traders and sustainability managers tracking scope 2 emissions in real time should note this is among the highest intensity readings of the past 24 hours.
The predispatch curve is the critical signal for today. Prices are forecast to escalate sharply through the morning: $148/MWh at 07:00 AEST, $232/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then a significant spike to $587.51/MWh at 09:00 AEST, followed by sustained elevated pricing through mid-morning — $412/MWh at 10:00 AEST, $330/MWh at 10:30 AEST, and $300/MWh across the 12:00–12:30 AEST period. Prices are forecast to fall back below $120/MWh from 13:30 AEST onward. Flexible load operators should note the optimal deferral windows are 12:00–17:00 AEST (averaging ~$70/MWh), saving in excess of $515/MWh against the forecast peak. Today's max temperature of 17.2°C and low overnight of 7.3°C points to sustained heating demand driving the morning load, with 20% cloud cover providing modest but not negligible solar generation through the middle of the day.
On the notice front, the Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator rating change (constraint set N-BU_7118) remains active, limiting transfers on the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector and bearing on NSW import capability from the south-west. The negative settlement residue constraint NRM_VIC1_NSW1 was active on the V