Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 22 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $140.73/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 9,234 MW — up sharply from the overnight trough of around 6,800–7,100 MW recorded in the early hours. The past 24 hours have been volatile: prices spiked to $298.99/MWh at 16:00 AEST and touched $280.80/MWh at 16:55 AEST during the morning peak, while the overnight period saw intervals drop as low as -$2.97/MWh at 13:55 AEST as wind generation and low demand compressed the market. The current reading of $140.73/MWh reflects the evening demand ramp now underway, with the rolling price trend clearly ascending across the past six 5-minute intervals from $111.01 to $140.73/MWh.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by black coal at 6,895 MW, with hydro contributing 1,265 MW, battery storage dispatching 441 MW, wind at 293 MW, gas OCGT at 161 MW, and solar at effectively zero — consistent with mid-winter night conditions at 8.4°C. Renewables are contributing 22.08% of generation, with carbon intensity sitting at 0.6816 tCO2/MWh. This is elevated relative to the overnight low of approximately 0.37–0.40 tCO2/MWh recorded between 11:30 AEST and 13:00 AEST, when wind output was stronger and demand lower. Tomorrow's solar potential is modest (avg 11.2 out of scale), and wind potential is low (avg 1.4), suggesting limited renewable uplift across the coming 24 hours.

The predispatch curve is the key watch point for today. Prices are forecast to ease from the current $140.73/MWh to $131–$133/MWh through 07:00–07:30 AEST before briefly lifting to $164/MWh at 08:00 AEST, then dropping to $84.79/MWh by 09:00 AEST and softening further into the $79/MWh range through 11:30–12:00 AEST. The early-morning window between 14:00–16:00 AEST (00:00–02:00 UTC) is forecast at $42.54–$42.56/MWh — the cheapest load window of the day. The morning peak from 17:00–20:30 AEST is forecast to be aggressive: $275/MWh at 17:00, $299.99/MWh at 17:30, with the 18:30–20:30 AEST window sustaining $480.01/MWh across multiple half-hours. Prices remain elevated above $175/MWh through to 23:00 AEST before relaxing. Load shifting into the 14:00–16:00 AEST window offers a modelled saving of up to $437/MWh versus peak.

Two market notices directly relevant to NSW remain active. AEMO issued a direction to a NSW participant under clause 4.8.9 of the NEL at 08:15 AEST to maintain system security (MN 144313); this was cancelled at 18:50