Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $147.99/MWh against a total demand of 9,227 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That current print is materially below the morning peak, which ran at the $299.98–$299.99/MWh cap across the 17:00–19:05 AEST window before easing through the evening. The 24-hour price profile has been sharply bimodal: a sustained morning ramp from $142/MWh at 16:00 AEST to cap-level pricing by 17:00 AEST, a mid-day lull in the $115–$175/MWh range, and then an overnight trough dropping to $75–$99/MWh in the early hours before the morning rebuild. The current $148/MWh level sits roughly in line with the overnight-to-morning transition zone, with demand climbing from its overnight low of ~6,950 MW back toward the 9,000+ MW range as the working day begins.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows black coal at 6,008 MW (approximately 66% of the local stack), hydro at 1,304 MW (14%), wind at 808 MW (9%), gas OCGT at 392 MW (4%), gas CCGT at 353 MW (4%), battery at 126 MW (1%), and solar at 76 MW (~1%). Total renewable contribution — wind, solar, hydro, and battery — sits at 25.53% per the latest carbon data. Carbon intensity is 0.6302 tCO₂/MWh, tracking above the overnight low of 0.51 tCO₂/MWh recorded around 03:30–04:00 AEST when demand was lightest and the renewable share peaked near 41%. The 95% cloud cover and minimal solar potential (rated 0 currently) are keeping solar output negligible; the daily forecast tops out at only 1.4 average solar potential, so no meaningful solar lift is expected across the day. Wind potential is rated at 5.1 currently but the daily outlook averages just 1.0, suggesting current wind output near 808 MW may not be sustained through the afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts signal a clear price step-change ahead. Prices are forecast to hold in the $88–$98/MWh range from 11:00 AEST through to approximately 13:00 AEST, representing the deepest off-peak window of the day — load-shifting opportunities here save an estimated $185–$199/MWh versus the anticipated daily peak. The morning ramp re-engages from around 16:00 AEST (06:00 AEST), with forecasts climbing to $164/MWh by 17:00 AEST, $185/MWh by 18:00 AEST, and $228/MWh at 18:30 AEST. A notable spike to $288/MWh is forecast for 22:30 AEST, followed by a return to the $150–$198/MWh range through the afternoon. The morning peak band of $230–$235/MWh is forecast for 07:00–08:00 AEST, consistent with yesterday's sustained cap-level pricing in that window. Traders should treat the 22:30 AEST $288/MWh print as an outlier to monitor