Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 21 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $116.42/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 8,657 MW as the winter morning ramp is well underway. Today's price profile tracks a familiar winter pattern: overnight intervals cleared in the $57–$68/MWh range, prices lifted sharply from around 04:00 AEST as heating demand built, and the morning peak has sustained prices above $110/MWh since approximately 04:15 AEST — with intra-peak spikes reaching $182.85/MWh at 06:00 AEST and $175.73/MWh at 07:25 AEST. The 24-hour average across the price history sits in the mid-$90s/MWh, meaning the current price is running roughly $20–25/MWh above that mean. Note that several intervals between 06:15–06:35 AEST remain subject to AEMO review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), so final settlement prices for those windows may change.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows black coal carrying the dominant share at 6,703 MW, with hydro contributing a substantial 1,409 MW. Gas CCGT adds 299 MW, OCGT 84 MW, wind 130 MW, solar a negligible 2 MW (consistent with pre-dawn conditions), and battery dispatch at 7.5 MW. Total metered generation sits at approximately 8,636 MW against the 8,657 MW demand figure, with the small residual covered by interconnector flows. Renewable penetration is 17.93% at the current interval — well below the overnight peak of approximately 39% recorded around 02:30–04:30 AEST when demand was lower and hydro's proportional contribution was larger. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7065 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of roughly 0.535 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the higher coal share as demand has risen. With solar potential rated near zero this morning (cloud cover only 2% but pre-sunrise conditions) and wind potential very low at 1.5, the carbon intensity profile is unlikely to improve materially until overnight demand falls again.

The predispatch forecast signals a significant price escalation across the coming morning trading periods. Prices are forecast to rise from $121/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $289/MWh by 06:30 UTC (16:30 AEST equivalent — note: the forecast target times are in UTC, so 06:30 UTC = 16:30 AEST). Translating the UTC forecast times: the $505/MWh level is forecast for 17:30 AEST, with the peak forecast window of $599–$600/MWh centred on 18:00–18:30 AEST. Prices then ease to $312/MWh by 19:00 AEST, $438/MWh at 20:00 AEST, and taper to the $136–$297/MWh range through 21:30–22:00 AEST before returning to $97–$107/MWh from 23:30 AEST onwards. Demand-side participants and battery operators should treat the 17:30–19:00 AEST window as the critical exposure period